LPG产业风险管理日报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end oil price pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical issues, with a recent downward shift in the price center; the release of the CP November contract price with a decline; a slight inventory reduction of US C3 but still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with a slight increase in supply and strong chemical demand [3]. - The short - term domestic fundamentals are neutral to positive, with low expected arrivals and high seasonal开工 of PDH and MTBE [3]. - Negative factors include the downward shift of the oil price center and relatively high domestic valuation [4]. Summary by Directory LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction of LPG is 4000 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.05%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in 3 years is 4.00% [2]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and worried about price decline, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4300 - 4400 to lock in profits; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and based on order - based procurement, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4000 - 4100 to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2601P4000 put options with a 25% ratio in the range of 30 - 50 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price falls [2]. Industry Data - A large amount of data on prices, spreads, monthly spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products are presented, including daily and weekly changes [7]. Price Seasonality - Seasonal charts of various prices such as MB M1, NWE C3 M1, FEI, CP, LPG futures, and LPG cheapest delivery products are provided [9][10][11]. Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, PG - CP, etc. are shown [17][19][20]. Monthly Spread Seasonality - Seasonal charts of monthly spreads such as LPG01 - 02, LPG12 - 01, FEI M1 - M2, etc. are presented [33][34][28]. Ratio Seasonality - Seasonal charts of ratios such as FEI/Brent, MB/WTI, FEI/MOPJ M1, etc. are provided [37][39]. Profit Seasonality - Seasonal charts of profits including LPG import profit - FEI, LPG import profit - CP, PDH profit, and various spot profits are shown [44][45][46]. Freight Seasonality - Seasonal charts of freight from the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are presented [62][63]. Other Seasonality - A seasonal chart of the water level of the Panama Canal - Gatun Lake is provided [66].