美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价：沪铜日评20251127-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to the weak employment performance in the US, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased, and there are production disturbances in multiple copper mines both at home and abroad. This may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in the price of Shanghai copper. The trading strategy suggests short - term light - position buying on dips for the main contract, with attention to support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Data - Price: On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 86590 (down 10 from the previous day), and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper half - average price was 86655 (up 45 from the previous day). The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10953 (up 120.5 from the previous day) [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai copper on November 26, 2025, was 107213 lots (an increase of 20231 lots from the previous day), and the open interest was 204728 lots (an increase of 5146 lots from the previous day) [2]. - Inventory: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of LME electrolytic copper and COMEX copper increased compared to last week. The Chinese copper inventory on November 26, 2025, was 39825 tons (a decrease of 1140 tons from the previous day) [2]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply: There are production disturbances in multiple copper mines both at home and abroad, causing the Chinese copper concentrate import index to remain negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November decreased compared to the previous month [2]. - Demand: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods increased compared to last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper cups decreased compared to last week [2]. Trading Strategy - Short - term light - position buying on dips for the main contract. Pay attention to the support level around 82000 - 84000 and the resistance level around 88000 - 90000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, focus on the support level around 10300 - 10500 and the resistance level around 11000 - 11500. For US copper, note the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [2].