Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Bearish rebound [6] - Soda Ash: Bearish consolidation [6] Report's Core Views - The market is affected by geopolitical factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the prices of most energy and chemical products are under pressure. The supply and demand fundamentals of each product vary, and investors should pay attention to relevant factors and adopt corresponding strategies [1][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 1.21%, Brent rising 1.20%, and SC falling 1.03% [7][8]. - Basic Logic: The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, and the short - term driver is the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9]. - Fundamentals: As of the week of November 26, the number of US oil rigs decreased, and Mexico's oil production declined. OPEC expects an increase in global oil demand in 2025 and 2026. US crude oil inventories increased [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: For the medium - to - long - term, OPEC+ is expanding production, and the oil price is in a low - price range. Technically, the short - term rebound is weak. Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [440 - 450] [11]. LPG - Market Performance: On November 26, the PG main contract closed at 4259 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [12]. - Basic Logic: The price is anchored to the cost of crude oil, with the cost side bearish and the demand side having some resilience. The basis is high, and the price is under pressure [13]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries was relatively stable, and inventories increased [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - to - long - term, the supply of upstream crude oil exceeds demand, and the price of LPG still has room to decline. Technically, the short - term rebound is under pressure. Do not chase the rise, and go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4200 - 4300] [14]. L - Market Performance: The L01 contract closed at 6707 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [17]. - Basic Logic: The chemical sector rebounded, but the supply was under pressure, the demand was weak, and the cost support was insufficient [19]. - Fundamentals: Domestic production increased seasonally, the downstream start - up rate decreased, and the oil price was expected to decline in the medium term [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, reduce short positions. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6850] [19]. PP - Market Performance: The PP01 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [21]. - Basic Logic: The fundamentals followed the cost side, with high inventory, weak demand, and the oil price still facing downward pressure [23]. - Fundamentals: The upstream and mid - stream inventories were high, the devices were restarting, and the external and internal demand was insufficient [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: At the low price level, reduce short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, wait for rebounds to go short. Pay attention to the range of PP at [6350 - 6500] [23]. PVC - Market Performance: The V01 contract closed at 4491 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [24]. - Basic Logic: The basis was repaired, the social inventory was high, the upward drive was insufficient, but the low valuation provided support [26]. - Fundamentals: The anti - dumping was unlikely to be implemented, and the export orders increased. The trading returned to the weak fundamentals [26]. - Strategy Recommendation: The market maintained a high premium. Industries should hedge at high prices. Be cautious about short - selling and wait for bullish drivers. Pay attention to the range of V at [4400 - 4550] [26]. PX/PTA - Market Performance: The TA05 contract closed at 4710 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [27]. - Basic Logic: The supply pressure was relieved, the demand was relatively good, but the cost was under pressure, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in December [28]. - Fundamentals: Some devices were under maintenance, the downstream polyester and weaving start - up rates were high, and the PX price might follow the decline of crude oil [28]. - Strategy Recommendation: The valuation and processing fees were not high. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4650 - 4725] [28]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The EG05 contract closed at 3808 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [29]. - Basic Logic: The domestic start - up rate decreased, the new devices were put into production, the supply pressure increased, and the demand was relatively good but the orders were weakening [30]. - Fundamentals: The domestic and overseas device status changed, the inventory increased slightly, and the cost was under pressure [30]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3880 - 3930] [31]. Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract position decreased slightly [34]. - Basic Logic: The spot price in Taicang stabilized, the port basis strengthened, the inventory decreased but was still at a high level. The supply pressure was large, the demand improved, and the cost support was weak [34]. - Fundamentals: Domestic devices increased production, overseas devices maintained stability, downstream demand improved, and the inventory decreased [35]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions at the low - valuation level. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract on dips [34]. Urea - Market Performance: The UR01 contract closed at 1654 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton [37]. - Basic Logic: The supply pressure remained, the demand was mixed, the social inventory was high, and the export had been priced in. Be vigilant about the downward risk [38]. - Fundamentals: The supply was high, the domestic demand was weak before the year, the export was good, the inventory decreased slightly, and the cost was supported [39]. - Strategy Recommendation: The fundamentals are weak. Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1625 - 1655] [40]. Natural Gas - Market Performance: On November 25, the NG main contract closed at 4.481 US dollars per million British thermal units, down 4.09% [43]. - Basic Logic: The easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to concerns about the return of Russian gas, putting pressure on the gas price. The demand entered the peak season, providing some support [44]. - Fundamentals: The number of US natural gas drilling platforms increased, China's natural gas production increased, and US natural gas inventories decreased [44]. - Strategy Recommendation: The demand is supported in the peak season, but the supply is sufficient, and the gas price is under pressure. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.565 - 4.800] [45]. Asphalt - Market Performance: On November 26, the BU main contract closed at 3043 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [47]. - Basic Logic: The price is mainly anchored to crude oil. Affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and South American geopolitics, there is still room for price compression [48]. - Fundamentals: The production plan decreased in December, the demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [48]. - Strategy Recommendation: The valuation is returning to normal, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is in the off - season. Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2950 - 3050] [49]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1037 yuan/ton, up 2.3% [51]. - Basic Logic: The cold - repair expectation provides support, but the supply is difficult to decline further, and the demand is weak [53]. - Fundamentals: The daily melting volume remained stable, the real - estate market was weak, and the deep - processing orders were at a low level [53]. - Strategy Recommendation: Close short positions in the short - term. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of FG at [990 - 1040] [53]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1173 yuan/ton, down 0.8% [55]. - Basic Logic: The demand weakened, the supply was in a loose pattern in the medium - to - long - term, and the market was in a bearish consolidation [54]. - Fundamentals: Some devices were under maintenance or reduced production, the demand from the glass industry decreased, and the inventory was high [55]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Be cautious about short - selling at the low price level. Medium - to - long - term, go short on rebounds [55].
中辉能化观点-20251127
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-27 02:10