格林大华期货早盘提示：钢材-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core View of the Report - The current market is dominated by the industrial level. It is expected that steel coils will continue to show a volatile trend. The first pressure level for the main螺纹 contract is 3150, and the 3000 level remains a strong support. Short - term operations or staying in a cash position are recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Conditions - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and continued to decline during the night session [1] Important Information - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.61 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period the year before last [1] - As of November 26, 5 steel enterprises carried out public announcements on the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring, and 230 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [1] - Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to promote consumption, aiming to significantly optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, forming 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 billion - level consumption hotspots [1] - From November 1 - 23, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.384 million vehicles, a 11% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period last November and a 2% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 20.64 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [1] Market Logic - On Wednesday, most steel coil spot prices remained stable, with a few declining. During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention is focused on the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. The current market trend depends on the industrial level. This week, the production and apparent demand of steel coils and five major steel products both changed from increasing to decreasing, and inventory continued to be depleted, but the depletion rate slowed down. Overall, supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The industrial level currently dominates the market. It is maintained that steel coils are expected to continue the volatile trend. The first pressure level for the main螺纹 contract is 3150, and the 3000 level remains a strong support. Short - term operations or staying in a cash position are recommended [1]