Metal Futures Daily Strategy：有色金属月度策略-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has slightly recovered after continuous adjustments. The macro - driving support is neutral, with ongoing stage consolidation and fluctuations, and there are still differences in volatility among different varieties. Attention should be paid to the fundamental drivers of each variety [11]. - The continuous improvement of supply and demand in the non - ferrous metals sector lacks momentum, and the market continues to fluctuate. Changes in interest - rate cut expectations continue to affect market volatility. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has boosted the price of tin, while nickel and stainless steel, the weakest in the sector, are at around five - year lows, and the strong - performing varieties still maintain a relatively strong form [12]. - The market should continue to pay attention to the expected changes in liquidity, as well as the expected changes in demand related to the development of domestic and foreign technology, AI, and new energy in the equity market. The non - ferrous metals related to these fields are returning from grand narratives to actual supply and demand, and the marginal boost on the demand side is generally limited. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of varieties empowered by supply - side themes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals sector has slightly recovered after continuous adjustments. The macro - driving support is neutral, with ongoing stage consolidation and fluctuations, and there are still differences in volatility among different varieties. The market is affected by various factors such as the Fed's stance on interest - rate cuts, economic data in the United States, and geopolitical situations [11][12]. - Investment Recommendations for Each Variety - Copper: The Fed's dovish stance and the launch of the US national - level AI plan increase the expected demand for copper. Although the supply - side tension has eased to some extent, the supply of domestic copper concentrates and electrolytic copper is tight. The price of copper is expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The support range is 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [13][15]. - Zinc: The price of zinc fluctuates repeatedly. The domestic zinc ingot is expected to reduce production in November, and the demand is relatively weak. It is recommended to buy slightly on dips. The support range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 22,800 - 23,000 yuan/ton [15]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum: The supply is stable, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips. The support range is 21,000 - 21,200 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,800 - 22,000 yuan/ton [15]. - Alumina: The supply has increased slightly, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The support range is 2,600 - 2,650 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton [15]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: Affected by the tight supply of scrap materials, it is recommended to wait and see. The support range is 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 21,300 - 21,500 yuan/ton [15]. - Tin: With more macro - positive news and the unstable situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, it is recommended to maintain a bullish operation idea. The support range is 270,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 300,000 - 310,000 yuan/ton [6][15]. - Lead: The supply is locally tight, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell options on both sides. The support range is 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 17,500 - 17,600 yuan/ton [7][16]. - Nickel: The cost support has weakened, and the demand has slowed down. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously or use covered call strategies. The support range is 112,000 - 114,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton [8][16]. - Stainless Steel: The supply and demand are weak, and the cost support has declined. It is recommended to buy slightly on dips. The support range is 12,200 - 12,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy [17]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors of various varieties such as polysilicon, silver, lithium carbonate, nickel, gold, industrial silicon, copper, tin, zinc, aluminum, lead, and aluminum alloy [19]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and casting aluminum alloy [20][22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Various charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain are presented, including the inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [24][28][30]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are presented, including the ratio changes, basis, and spread trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [58][59][61]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Various charts related to non - ferrous metals options are presented, including the historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open - interest ratio of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [74][76][78].