综合晨报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - There are various factors influencing different commodities, including supply - demand relationships, macro - economic data, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Each commodity has its own unique price trends and investment outlooks based on these factors [2][3][4] - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of range - bound trading, while others may have potential for price increases or decreases depending on specific circumstances such as cost support, inventory changes, and demand fluctuations [8][14][20] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there are still downward drivers due to future inventory build - up expectations. The near - term risk is related to Russia's stance on the peace plan [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost increases. High - sulfur fuel oil may see short - term price support from supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - Asphalt: Recent shipments in East and South China have improved, with inventory reduction accelerating. However, long - term, it still faces pressure as demand follows a seasonal decline [22] Metals - Precious Metals: Gold is in a high - level oscillation, and silver is relatively strong. Uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical situations remain [3] - Base Metals: - Copper: Overnight, LME copper prices rose, driven by an increased probability of a US interest rate cut in the next month. Short - term trading should focus on position changes [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum prices rose slightly. After a price correction, downstream demand showed some resilience. The market is in a high - level oscillation [5] - Zinc: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, providing some support to zinc prices. However, weak domestic demand restricts upward movement, and it is expected to trade in a range [8] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel prices rebounded, but the market sentiment is still cold. Stainless steel costs are decreasing, and the fundamental situation is weak [10] - Tin: Overnight, LME tin prices rose, and Shanghai tin followed suit. Attention should be paid to position changes [11] - Ferrous Metals: - Iron Ore: The supply is relatively strong, and demand is weak as steel mills are in a seasonal production - cut period. The market is expected to be range - bound [15] - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke prices may weaken as the carbon element supply is abundant and downstream demand is under pressure. Coking coal prices are also expected to be weak [16][17] - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): Steel prices are range - bound. Although demand has improved slightly, overall demand is still weak, and supply pressure is gradually easing [14] Chemicals - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: Propylene prices are rising, but downstream cost pressure may limit the upward space. Polyethylene supply is stable, and demand is weakening [27] - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC prices are oscillating. Supply is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda prices are also weak due to high supply and low demand [28] - PX and PTA: PX is expected to be strong in the medium - term due to potential supply cuts from maintenance. PTA is expected to follow cost - driven trends with improved processing margins [29] - Methanol: It is recommended to try long - side trading or positive spread trading as overseas production cuts are being realized and port inventories are expected to decline [24] - Urea: Supply is abundant, and although demand has increased recently, the oversupply situation is expected to continue [23] Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is high. South American soybean planting is affected by weather, and it is recommended to wait for buying opportunities after a pull - back [35] - Vegetable Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil): Palm oil market's marginal negative factors are easing, which may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] - Corn: Corn futures are in a correction. North port prices are rising, and there are concerns about supply and transportation in the Northeast. It is recommended to short at high levels with caution [39] - Livestock and Poultry Products: - Pigs: The pig industry is in a de - capacity phase, which supports far - month futures prices. However, short - term prices are weak, and a second bottom may form next year [40] - Eggs: The medium - term supply pressure of eggs is expected to ease, but short - term near - month contracts will focus on the convergence of futures - spot price spreads [41] - Cotton: US cotton is slightly rising. Domestic cotton has cost support and limited upside. The cotton yarn market is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [42] - Sugar: International sugar supply is sufficient, and US sugar faces upward pressure. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apples: Apple futures are in high - level oscillation. Short - term prices are strong, but long - term, there may be inventory pressure on far - month contracts [44] Others - Shipping (Container Freight Index - European Line): Near - month contracts are weak due to weak spot market expectations, while far - month contracts are under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - Paper Pulp: Paper pulp prices are falling. Port inventories are increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45] - Stock Index Futures: The stock market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see due to uncertainties in the geopolitical situation and Fed rate - cut expectations [46] - Treasury Bond Futures: Treasury bond futures are falling, and there are concerns about bond repayment risks. It is recommended to operate with caution [47]