镍与不锈钢日评：考验支撑有效性-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: On November 26, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium widened. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but due to the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the low valuation, after getting support around 115,000, the nickel price is expected to have a weak recovery [1]. - Stainless steel: On November 26, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated upwards. The spot market trading was average, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening, but with the production - cut disturbance in the 400 - series, the stainless steel is expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Content 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Nickel Futures - Prices: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates (2025 - 11 - 19, 2025 - 11 - 25, 2025 - 11 - 26) showed certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 117,030 yuan/ton, up 1,090 yuan from the previous day [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active nickel futures contract on November 26 was 176,566 hands (+60,128), and the open interest was 128,268 hands (- 12,947) [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased, while the social inventory decreased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless - Steel Futures - Prices: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) on different trading dates also fluctuated. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract on November 26 was 12,270 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the active stainless - steel futures contract on November 26 was 151,599 hands (+1,313), and the open interest was 131,410 hands (- 15,827) [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 620,400 tons (- 2,800) [1]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased last week, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, with domestic production in November decreasing and Indonesian production increasing. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [1]. - Demand: Ternary production increased; stainless - steel plant production decreased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [1]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel - Supply: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and the production of the 300 - series was basically flat [1]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [1]. 3.3 Cost Analysis - Nickel: Not much information on cost analysis for nickel in the report. - Stainless Steel: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat, indicating that the cost support for stainless steel was weakening [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Indonesian nickel industry emphasizes sustainable development based on green and low - carbon technologies. Indonesian Vale's director pointed out that the sustainable development of the nickel industry must be based on green and low - carbon technologies. The company has implemented multiple de - phosphorus measures, including using hydropower, recycling waste heat, and using carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Indonesian Mining Holding Company (Mind Id) said Indonesia can build a world - class supply chain meeting net - zero emission goals [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Nickel: The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - Stainless Steel: The recommended trading strategy is to short after a rebound [1].