华宝期货晨报煤焦-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the high-level clearance of Mongolian coal and domestic coal supply guarantee policies have impacted market sentiment. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rebounded, but weakened again during the night session. The positions of the 01 contract are gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month prices, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions回调, and coke prices remaining stable after four rounds of price increases [3] Fundamental Situation - Mysteel research shows that the shutdown of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi this week has led to a decline in coal production. Most of the shutdowns are for a long time, and there is little room for a significant increase in coal production in the short term. In December, some coal mines may reduce production due to the completion of annual production tasks, safety concerns, and weak downstream demand [3] Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, the cumulative imports were 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons or 5.16%. In October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a relatively high level. In October, Australia exported 1.0469 million tons of coking coal to China, with a significant month-on-month increase. The imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal decreased slightly in October compared to September [4] Later Concerns - Monitor the changes in steel mill blast furnace start-up rates and coal mine复产 situations [4]