贵金属：白银大涨关注交割压力，铂钯上市促进绿色经济发展

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals. In the short - term, pay attention to the change of the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation, and Fed officials' speeches are the only signal when data is lacking. Technically, pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and corrections are regarded as mid - to - long - term opportunities to add long positions. The resistance of London gold is 4250, support is 4000, and strong support is in the 3900 area; the resistance of silver is 54.5, and support is 50. Platinum and palladium prices currently mainly follow gold and silver, dominated by investment attributes [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose. The expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut in December and the delivery pressure of COMEX gold and silver in December's delivery month made precious metals prone to rise and hard to fall. The Fed's Beige Book showed little change in economic activity during the government shutdown period. US economic data included a decrease in the number of initial jobless claims to 216,000 and a 0.5% month - on - month increase in the preliminary value of September durable goods orders. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicted a 3.9% GDP growth rate in Q3. Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum and palladium futures were listed today, and options will be listed on Friday. Finally, COMEX gold 2602 contract closed at $4160.6/oz (+0.5%); COMEX silver 2603 contract closed at $53.05/oz (+4.09%); SHFE gold 2602 contract closed at 946.72 yuan/g (+0.55%); SHFE silver 2602 contract closed at 12,227 yuan/kg (+1.79%); NYMEX platinum 2601 contract closed at $1598.8/oz (+2.16%); NYMEX palladium 2603 contract closed at $1464.5/oz (+4.20%) [1] Interest - Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 was 15.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 84.9%. In terms of long - term funds, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.57 tons to 1045.43 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15,511.81 tons; global platinum ETF holdings decreased by 0.0003 tons to 96.271 tons; global palladium ETF holdings decreased by 0.079 tons to 32.2961 tons (-0.24%). SHFE gold inventory remained at 9.04 tons, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.1 tons to 531.2 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 58.8 tons to 715.9 tons in the week ending November 21. NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories remained unchanged [2] This Week's Focus - Thursday and Friday are Thanksgiving in the US. CME precious metal futures contract trading will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on the 28th on Thursday and at 03:45 Beijing time on the 29th on Friday [3] Precious Metal Spot and Futures Prices - SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 946.72 yuan/g (+0.02%); SGX gold TD was at 941.17 yuan/g (+0.05%); CME gold main contract was at $4196.1/oz (+0.74%); SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 12,227 yuan/kg (+0.82%); SGX silver TD was at 12,209 yuan/kg (+0.63%); CME silver main contract was at $53.76/oz (+5.25%); SHFE - TD gold was at 5.55 yuan/g (-4.48%); SHFE - TD silver was at 18 yuan/kg (-73.68%); CME gold - silver ratio was 78.0525 (-4.28%); NYMEX platinum main - continuous contract was at $1598.8/oz (+2.16%); NYMEX palladium main - continuous contract was at $1464.5/oz (+4.20%) [6] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory was 90,423 kg (0%); CME gold inventory was 1137.3521 tons (-0.01%); SHFE gold position was 188,763 lots (+4.19%); SPDR gold position was 1045.43 tons (+0.44%); SHFE silver inventory was 531.211 tons (-1.73%); CME silver inventory was 14,248.0999 tons (-0.25%); SGX silver inventory was 715.875 tons (-7.59%); SHFE silver position was 385,232 lots (+5.07%); SLV silver position was 15,582.334202 tons (0%); NYMEX platinum inventory was 19.1893 tons (0%); NYMEX platinum position was 88,642 lots (-2.45%); NYMEX palladium inventory was 5.3879 tons (0%); NYMEX palladium position was 21,673 lots (-4.82%); global platinum ETF was 96.271 tons (0%); global palladium ETF was 32.2961 tons (-0.24%) [13] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index was 99.5831 (-0.22%); the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was 7.0693 (-0.19%); the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 47,427.12 points (+0.67%); WTI crude oil spot was $58.65/barrel (+1.21%); LmeS copper 03 was $10,953/ton (+1.11%); the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4% (-0.25%); the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.77% (-1.12%); the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread was 0.55% (-5.17%) [20][21]