2026年有色金属行情关注要点与逻辑梳理-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In 2026, the non-ferrous metal market will continue to trade on the two themes of "macro-policy disturbances" and "mine supply security." The prices of different metals will significantly diverge based on their supply-demand fundamentals. It is advisable to focus on structural opportunities, such as the long-term allocation value of copper, aluminum, and tin, the internal and external arbitrage window in the zinc market, and the banded rebound opportunities of cobalt, nickel, and other varieties due to policy or cost support. The strength ranking of major global non-ferrous metals in 2026 is: tin > copper > aluminum > cobalt > zinc > nickel > lithium > lead [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry Background: Game, Deviation, and Resource Security - Geopolitical Aspect: Sino-US game remains a long-term core variable affecting global trade and the basic metal market. Although there was a period of relaxation since October this year, the long-term structural competition pattern remains unchanged, bringing continuous uncertainty to the market [2]. - Economic Deviation: The weak global manufacturing PMI data deviates from the strong performance of some basic metal prices. The OECD predicts that China's GDP growth rate will drop from 4.7% this year to 4.4% next year, confirming the weak real economy [2]. - Monetary Environment: The market highly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy path. Overall, global liquidity will remain relatively loose in the future. The long-term weakening of the US dollar's credit will provide systematic support for commodity prices [4]. - Resource Dependence Crisis: China has a very high external dependence on non-ferrous metal minerals. Any supply disturbances in overseas mines will be magnified and quickly transmitted to the price end [6]. - Low Inventory Effect: Globally, the exchange inventories of most basic metals are at historically low levels, which weakens the market's buffer capacity against sudden supply-demand changes and increases price volatility [6]. 2. Outlook for the Non-Ferrous Metal Market in 2026: Differentiation and Structural Opportunities 2.1 Copper - Core Logic: Tight mine supply is the dominant contradiction, and financial attributes determine price elasticity [9]. - Supply Side: Copper concentrate supply is continuously tight, and the spot TC price index has been low or even negative for nearly 8 - 9 months. Global mine disturbances are frequent, and the supply-demand shortage of copper concentrate is expected to be about 500,000 tons in 2026 [9]. - Demand Side: New energy is the core driving force. In 2026, the new energy sector is expected to bring 213,000 tons and 141,000 tons of copper consumption increments to the Chinese and overseas markets respectively [9]. - Inventory and Balance: Although the global refined copper inventory as of November 6 is at a five-year high, the fundamental shortage at the mine end will push the price center upward. The current copper price close to 90,000 yuan/ton is expected to break through the 90,000 mark in 2026 [9]. 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Core Logic: The "ceiling" of production capacity formed by China's supply-side reform and the new production capacity in Indonesia are the main contradictions, and low inventory amplifies price volatility [12]. - Supply Side: China's production capacity has reached the ceiling, and the key variable next year is the progress of Indonesia's new production capacity of about 600,000 tons and power supply. Overseas disturbances intensify the tightness. The global electrolytic aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.15 million tons [12]. - Demand Side: Consumption growth is concentrated in the new energy field, and the consumption growth rate of the transportation sector in 2026 is expected to be 5% [12]. - Inventory and Balance: The global inventory is about 1.49 million tons, and the domestic inventory is less than 800,000 tons. A supply gap of 180,000 tons is expected in 2026, maintaining a tight balance [12]. - Attribute Evolution: The strategic attribute of aluminum is becoming increasingly prominent, enhancing its financial attribute and increasing its linkage with copper [12]. 2.3 Lead & Zinc - Zinc: The core feature is the serious divergence of internal and external market inventories, which creates a historical window for internal and external arbitrage. The growth rate of global zinc concentrate is expected to fall below 4% in 2026. China's zinc ingot is expected to have a surplus of 1.15 million tons in 2026, while overseas may reverse the shortage situation [13]. - Lead: It has entered an "internal circulation" cycle dominated by recycled lead, with a proportion of over 50%. The domestic market maintains a tight balance, while overseas may have a slight surplus. China's production is expected to slightly increase from 6.92 million tons to 6.95 million tons in 2026 [14]. 2.4 Nickel & Cobalt - Nickel: The primary nickel market remains in surplus, and the supply-demand difference in 2026 is expected to be 46,000 tons. The sufficient supply of nickel pig iron and MHP continues to suppress the nickel price. The future core variables are Indonesia's industrial policies and cost competition among different process routes [17]. - Cobalt: The floating quota policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is the biggest variable. This mechanism has become an "automatic stabilizer" for the price, giving the cobalt price strong elasticity [17]. 2.5 Tin & Lithium - Tin: The core logic is the rigid supply constraint versus the structural growth of demand. The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State is less than expected, and the grade of overseas tin mines is declining. The global supply gap in 2026 is expected to be 730,000 tons, which is the fundamental reason for the continuous strengthening of the tin price for three years [19]. - Lithium: The global supply surplus pattern continues. The concentrated release of medium and low-grade lithium resource production capacity and the maturity of technologies such as lithium extraction from salt lakes lead to a downward shift in the cost center. The lithium price still faces downward pressure in the medium and long term [19]. 3. Summary - Supply-Driven First Echelon: Tin, copper, and aluminum have the strongest foundation for a structural bull market [21]. - Policy/Structural Disturbance Second Echelon: Cobalt and zinc have significant banded and structural opportunities [21]. - Surplus Suppression Type: Nickel, lithium, and lead are under overall pressure, mainly based on the logic of rebound and cost support [21].