2025年11月27日：期货市场交易指引-20251127

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and coke, and rebar are recommended for range trading; Glass is expected to continue weakening [1][6][7] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper, aluminum, tin, gold, silver, and lithium carbonate are recommended for range trading; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [1][9][11][14] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are recommended for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are recommended to wait and see; Polyolefins are expected to trade weakly [1][18][20][21] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is expected to trade in a range; Apples are expected to be bullish in a sideways market; Jujubes are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [1][29][31] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Live pigs' near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and long - term contracts should be chased with caution; Eggs are expected to trade in a range; Corn is recommended to hedge on rallies; Soybean meal is recommended for range trading; Oils are expected to trade weakly in the short - term [1][32][33][34] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market analysis of different industries, including macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also points out that market trends are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns [5][6][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to factors such as US inflation, retail sales, and European Central Bank warnings, the main market trends rotate quickly, and index futures may trade sideways in the short - term but are long - term bullish [5] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is currently "insensitive to positives and sensitive to negatives", with narrow interest rate fluctuations and low odds, resulting in reduced attractiveness for allocation. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal and Coke: The coal mine market is in a continuous price - cutting trend, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. Market participants are mostly waiting and seeing, and it is recommended for range trading [6][7] - Rebar: With an unclear outlook for the Fed's December rate cut and a domestic policy vacuum, steel production and demand increased last week, but future demand may decline. Steel prices are expected to trade sideways at low levels due to low valuations and weak drivers [7] - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line cold - repairs, most of them are false. Supply remains stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. Glass prices are expected to continue weakening [7] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Geopolitical factors in Congo (Kinshasa) bring uncertainties, but market consumption is improving, and social inventory is decreasing. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range in the short - term, with long - term bullish potential [9] - Aluminum: Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities have changed slightly. Demand is entering the off - season, and inventory has decreased slightly. Aluminum prices are expected to trade sideways [10] - Nickel: Indonesia's new RKAB policy may affect supply, and the market is in a state of over - supply. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14] - Tin: Domestic production has increased, and supply is expected to improve. The semiconductor industry is recovering, but downstream consumption is weak. Tin prices are expected to be supported, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand [14] - Silver and Gold: Affected by US economic data and Fed rate - cut expectations, prices are in an adjustment phase. They are expected to be supported in the medium - term and continue to trade sideways in the short - term [15][16][18] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply is in a tight balance, and demand is strong. Prices are expected to continue a strong sideways trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to mine production and permits [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: With high supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to trade weakly in a sideways market, but attention should be paid to policy and cost factors [18] - Caustic Soda: Affected by alumina production and inventory, caustic soda's valuation is suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [20] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short - term. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to pure benzene prices and crude oil [21][22] - Rubber: Domestic production areas are entering the off - season, and overseas floods have affected supply. However, inventory has increased significantly, and prices are expected to trade in a range [22] - Urea: Supply has increased, agricultural demand is weakening, and industrial demand is strengthening. Urea prices are expected to trade sideways under high production and inventory [24][25] - Methanol: Supply has recovered, demand from the olefin industry has increased slightly, and traditional demand is weak. Inventory has decreased at ports, and prices are expected to stabilize [25] - Polyolefins: With weakening supply pressure, some improvement in demand, and compressed production profits, PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [26][27] - Soda Ash: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is weak. With cost support, it is recommended to wait and see [28][29] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are relatively loose, but yarn prices are strong, and cotton prices are expected to trade sideways [29] - PTA: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, PTA prices are expected to trade in a low - level range [29] - Apples: Ground and warehouse trading is coming to an end, and prices are expected to be bullish in a sideways market [31] - Jujubes: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is uneven, and prices are expected to be bearish in a sideways market [31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Live Pigs: In the short - term, supply pressure remains, and demand growth is limited. In the long - term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the equilibrium level. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - term and be cautious about long - term rallies [32] - Eggs: Supply is relatively abundant, but short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices are expected to trade in a range with limited upside [33] - Corn: Short - term supply pressure has eased, and prices may rebound, but long - term supply is expected to be abundant, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hedge on rallies [34] - Soybean Meal: US soybean prices are expected to trade narrowly, and domestic supply is sufficient in the short - term. It is recommended for range trading [36] - Oils: In the short - term, palm oil production growth has slowed, but export data is poor, and there are many negative factors. Oils are expected to trade in a low - level range. In the long - term, they are expected to trade in a wide range [37][41]