国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading suggestions and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures on November 27, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. For example, PX is advised not to be chased at high prices in the short term, and MEG's supply - demand pattern is improving [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Short - term not to chase high, with the price rising on November 26. The spread between PX and naphtha continues to expand. Suggest to exit long positions, go long MEG and short PX, and pay attention to the monthly spread reverse - arbitrage position [2][6][10]. - PTA: In a unilateral oscillating market, not to chase high. Valuation is at a high level, suggest to exit long positions and go long MEG and short PTA for hedging [2][10]. - MEG: Supply - demand balance sheet improves, suggest to cut short positions, take profit on short - position and reverse - arbitrage, and go long MEG and short PX for hedging [2][10]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. The trend strength is 1. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume has also increased. In October 2025, China's truck and bus tire exports showed a short - term slowdown, and the export orders in November were weak [11][12][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is oscillating. The trend strength is 0. The inventory of domestic butadiene and butadiene rubber has increased. The short - term is in a weak decline, and the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [15][17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market is following the weak trend of crude oil. The trend strength is - 1. The production capacity utilization rate has increased this week, and the shipment volume has also increased. The planned production volume in December has decreased [19][27][28]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE market has a situation where import offers may decrease and cracking load is disturbed. The trend strength is 0. The futures price is oscillating at a low level, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid demand. The supply side has some short - term contradictions, and medium - term attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure [29][30]. 3.6 PP - In the short term, do not chase short positions in the PP market, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The supply side is currently under high pressure, and the demand peak has passed. The low profit of PP limits the downward space [31][32][33]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is still under pressure. The trend strength is - 1. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is also limited, and long - term negative feedback may occur in the industry chain [35][37][38]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The trend strength is 0. In November 2025, the pulp market showed a pattern of "weak softwood pulp and strong hardwood pulp". The price changes are affected by factors such as financial attributes, cost, and supply - demand structure [40][42][44]. 3.9 Glass - The glass market has stable original - sheet prices. The trend strength is 0. The spot price is slightly weak, the cost support is increasing, but the processing factory orders are average, and the trading volume is general [47][48]. 3.10 Methanol - The methanol market continues the short - term rebound pattern. The trend strength is 1. The spot price index has increased, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term rebound is due to the shutdown of Iranian methanol plants and capital games, while the medium - term fundamentals are still under pressure [50][52][53]. 3.11 Urea - The urea market is operating within a range, and the intraday trend mainly follows the spot sentiment. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the short - term is expected to be in an oscillating pattern. The domestic fundamentals are under pressure, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [55][56][57]. 3.12 Styrene - The styrene market is oscillating in the short term. The trend strength is - 1. The pure benzene market is oscillating, and the styrene pattern is slightly stronger than pure benzene, but the rebound height is limited [58][59]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market has little change. The trend strength is 0. The enterprise device is stable with minor fluctuations, the downstream demand is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [62][63]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG: The external market is strong, and the demand is acceptable. The trend strength is 0. The CP paper - cargo prices of propane and butane have increased [65][71]. - Propylene: The demand support is weakening, and the upward driving force is limited. The trend strength is 0 [22][66]. 3.15 PVC - The PVC market is oscillating at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The market is in a weak oscillation, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved. Although the absolute valuation is low, the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short term [74][75]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: Oscillating at night, may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The trend strength is 0. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Continuing the adjustment trend, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market has shrunk again. The trend strength is 0 [77]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is operating weakly. The trend strength is not explicitly stated, but the market shows a weak trend with fluctuations in freight rates and trading volumes [79].