贵金属日报：褐皮书揭示美国经济前景基本维稳-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's Beige Book shows that the US economic outlook is basically stable, but there are risks of a slowdown in some areas. The market is worried about the US economic slowdown, and the possibility of interest rate cuts in December has opened up. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will be in a volatile and upward pattern in the near future, and the gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to narrow [1][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed's Beige Book indicates that economic activity is basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out that the risk of a slowdown in economic activity in the next few months has increased. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April, lower than the expected 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose slightly to 1.96 million [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 942.56 yuan/gram and closed at 946.72 yuan/gram, a change of 0.02% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 947.00 yuan/gram and closed at 949.34 yuan/gram, up 0.28% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 12,081.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,227.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.82% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 1,643,769 lots, and the open interest was 385,232 lots. In the night session, it opened at 12,250 yuan/kilogram and closed at 12,450 yuan/kilogram, up 1.82% from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 3.992%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.517%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On November 26, 2025, in the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 7,552 lots compared with the previous day, and the short positions changed by 2,687 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 453,331 lots, a change of 7.60% from the previous trading day. In the case of Shanghai Silver, in the Ag2602 contract, the long positions changed by 14,304 lots, and the short positions changed by 9,941 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,051,420 lots, a change of 15.48% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,040.86 tons yesterday, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,582 tons, an increase of 70 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On November 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.55 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -1,071.88 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 77.43, a change of -0.79% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 80.65, a change of -0.79% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 57,208 kilograms, a change of -7.39% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 668,376 kilograms, a change of -37.60% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 18,300 kilograms [7]