新能源及有色金属日报：新仓单博弈，多晶硅盘面偏强震荡-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern may improve during the dry season but still shows a cumulative inventory pattern. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the futures may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand both weaken, with high inventory pressure and general consumption performance. The futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and are expected to fluctuate mainly [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On November 26, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,960 yuan/ton and closed at 9,020 yuan/ton, a change of 0.28% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 260,529 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 40,425 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with prices in various regions unchanged [1] - The Lanzhou Dongjin Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. organic silicon integration project (change) has its total land area changed to 1,667.45 mu. The first - phase product is changed to 400,000 tons/year of industrial silicon blocks, and the second - phase will build a production line for 400,000 tons/year of organic silicon monomers and supporting downstream products [2] - The organic silicon DMC market is stable, with a current mainstream quotation of 13,100 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Manufacturers have a strong willingness to hold prices, and downstream enterprises actively follow up, with increased market confidence. It is expected to run steadily and strongly in the short term [2] Polysilicon - On November 26, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2601 showed a strong - side fluctuation, opening at 54,730 yuan/ton and closing at 55,895 yuan/ton, a 2.93% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 143,043 lots, and the trading volume was 330,316 lots [4] - The polysilicon spot price weakened slightly. The polysilicon manufacturer inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased, with polysilicon inventory at 271,000 tons (a 1.50% change) and silicon wafer inventory at 18.72 GW (a 1.63% change). The weekly polysilicon production was 27,100 tons (a 1.11% change), and the silicon wafer production was 12.78 GW (a - 2.59% change) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided, with some prices remaining stable and some having slight changes [5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - The spot price is stable. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and contracts during the dry season can be bought at low prices [3] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [6]