日度策略参考-20251127

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Glass, Agricultural Products (in some aspects), PTA, Short Fiber - Bearish: Palm Oil, Live Pigs - Neutral/Oscillating: Macro Finance, Treasury Bonds, Alumina, Zinc, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Soda Ash, Coke, Coking Coal, Rapeseed Oil, Pulp, Logs, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Rubber, Styrene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping (European Line) [1] Core Views - The market divergence is expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of a new main line. Central Huijin's support provides a buffer, and the downside risk of the index is generally controllable. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment and use the futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support drive the prices of some metals and other commodities, while supply - demand fundamentals and macro factors also affect different sectors [1]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - The market adjustment provides an opportunity to layout for the index's rise next year. Traders can establish long positions during the adjustment and use the futures' discount structure [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank's warning on interest - rate risks suppresses short - term upward movement [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, market sentiment, and industrial support, the price is strong [1]. - Aluminum: With positive macro sentiment and limited industrial drive, the price rebounds [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed's internal differences cause macro sentiment to fluctuate. The domestic situation has improved slightly, but the oversupply pattern remains, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the macro sentiment. Indonesia restricts nickel - related projects, and with production cuts in intermediate products, the price is expected to recover in the short term. The long - term surplus pattern remains [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations improve the sentiment. The price of raw material nickel - iron is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price rebounds slightly in the short term [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences cause macro sentiment to be unstable. Supply has not recovered, and the price is strong. There is demand pressure, and the long - term trend is bullish [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: The probability of a December interest - rate cut is high, but geopolitical tensions may ease, and the number of unemployment - benefit applicants has decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is resuming, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production is decreasing, and organic silicon is jointly cutting production [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and energy - storage demand is strong. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: The industrial off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is loose. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the price has limited upward space. Traders can participate in virtual value accumulation strategies [1]. - Iron Ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good. The direct demand is okay, but the supply is high, and the inventory is increasing, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The short - term production profit is poor, but the cost support is strong. The supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure, so the price rebound is limited [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment drives strong price fluctuations [1]. - Soda Ash: The price increase faces resistance, and it generally follows the glass market [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. The downstream is expected to start restocking around mid - December. Unilateral trading should be short - term, and long - term investment needs further observation [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data shows increased production in the origin and reduced exports. Domestic purchases are large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Soybean and Soybean Oil: The rumor refutation of the US delaying the reduction of incentives for imported bio - fuel raw materials creates a bullish expectation difference, supporting the price of US soybeans and soybean oil. The domestic basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, but foreign capital's long - position trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: The new domestic crop has a strong bumper - harvest expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream start - up is low, but there is a rigid restocking demand [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the downward trend of raw sugar [1]. - Bean粕: The short - term supply is tight, and the spot price is firm. The market should pay attention to farmers' selling rhythm. The M05 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. - Pulp: Old warehouse receipts are being cancelled, and new ones are being registered. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the price is oscillating in the short term [1]. - Logs: The fundamental situation is weak, but it has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pigs: The current spot price is stable, demand provides support, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is progressing, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: It generally follows the trend of crude oil in the short term [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of raw - material crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is high [1]. - Rubber: The price of butadiene provides limited support, and refinery overhauls may bring a bullish expectation. High inventory restricts price increases, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in production capacity [1]. - Short Fiber: It closely follows the cost trend [1]. - Styrene: The export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - dumping and cost [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [1]. - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants have delayed production, and there is a risk of a short squeeze in the near - month contracts [1]. - LPG: The geopolitical and tariff situation has eased, and the market is expected to be in a state of supply - demand balance. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [1]. - Container Shipping (European Line): The shipping capacity supply in December is relatively loose, and the price increase is less than expected [1].