中辉有色观点-20251127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound in the short - term, sell on rallies in the medium - long term [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Low - level rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The long - term strategic value of gold remains unchanged due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchases. Silver has potential for growth with policy - driven demand. Copper is expected to see a rising price center. Zinc has short - term support but a bearish medium - long - term outlook. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum face challenges in price rebounds. Nickel shows a low - level rebound. Industrial silicon is range - bound. Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market situation: US economic data is volatile, consumption is weak, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation is in deadlock, but gold has long - term support from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [2][3] - Strategies: Long - term value - based positions should be held, with short - term attention on the support levels of 920 for domestic gold and 12000 for silver [3] Copper - Market situation: The price of copper shows an upward trend. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to decline. The market has high expectations for policy stimulus [5][6][7] - Strategies: Buy on dips. Short - term, focus on the range of 86500 - 88500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10500 - 11000 dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - Market situation: Domestic zinc enters the off - season, with exports increasing and inventory decreasing slightly. The supply and demand are weak in the short term, and there is a risk of supply increase and demand decrease in the long term [9] - Strategies: Short - term wide - range oscillation, waiting for more macro - guidance. Sell on rallies in the medium - long term. Focus on the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3000 - 3100 dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum - Market situation: Aluminum prices face pressure in rebounding. Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is expected to decrease, and domestic demand shows a structural differentiation. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [11][13] - Strategies: Short - term short - selling on rallies. Pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. Focus on the range of 21000 - 21600 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - Market situation: Nickel prices rebound. Indonesia plans to cut production, but global refined nickel inventory is at a high level. Stainless steel demand is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [15][17] - Strategies: Take profit on dips and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. Focus on the range of 116000 - 119000 yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market situation: The inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 14 weeks, but the rate of decrease has slowed down. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt factories has increased, and terminal demand remains strong [19][21] - Strategies: Buy on dips, with the range of 94000 - 97500 yuan/ton [22]