中辉农产品观点-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Cotton (cautious bullish), Bean oil (short - term bullish), Rapeseed oil (short - term bullish) [1] - Bearish: Red dates (rebound under pressure), Live pigs (be wary of short - term rebound) [1] - Neutral or Consolidating: Soybean meal (short - term bullish consolidation), Rapeseed meal (short - term consolidation), Palm oil (weak consolidation), Soybean oil (short - term oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean meal: South American planting progress is lower than last year, and rainfall is expected to be below normal. However, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, but the sales pressure of oil mills has decreased. The issue of US soybean import tariffs has not been effectively resolved. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate bullishly, but the upward space of the main contract is limited [1]. - Rapeseed meal: Coastal oil mills have zero inventory, zero crushing, and low imports of rapeseed, but port inventories are still higher year - on - year. The spot market is reducing inventory by lowering prices. There is no significant expected change in the fundamentals. It showed a short - term consolidation trend [1]. - Palm oil: It is in a state of weak supply - demand in the short - term. November export data in Malaysia is weak, but the decline has slightly recovered. With the expected festival stocking demand in China and India in December and later, the price rebounded slightly after falling to a certain low. Considering the expected inventory build - up in Malaysia in November, the short - term rebound is temporary [1]. - Soybean oil: Domestic inventory has decreased month - on - month but is still higher than the five - year average. The issue of US soybean import costs due to tariffs remains unresolved. With the optimistic sentiment in US biodiesel and the slightly dry planting weather in Brazil during the consumption peak season, the adjustment space is limited, and opportunities to go long after adjustments can be considered [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. Port inventories have continued to decline month - on - month, with strong fundamentals. A bullish approach is recommended, and short - selling should be cautious [1]. - Cotton: The US cotton harvest is nearing completion, weakening the supply - side narrative. The market is trading around interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the cash flow of downstream textile enterprises has improved, and the firm yarn prices have driven a slight rebound in cotton prices. However, the upward movement is restricted by high inventories and hedging pressure. In the short - term, it may test the 13700 - 13800 level, and a light - position long - entry can be considered [1]. - Red dates: As new products are gradually launched and the consumption season arrives, the supply - demand will be strong in both aspects. In a loose pattern, a bearish attitude is recommended. Most of the premium caused by speculation on a large reduction in new - season red date production has been squeezed out, and the downward trend in the futures market has slowed down. Excessive short - selling is not recommended when the spot price decline is limited [1]. - Live pigs: In the short - term, the supply remains loose, and demand is gradually increasing. The futures price of near - month contracts has reached a new low and is close to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises. With high positions, excessive short - selling is not advisable. The reduction of the breeding sows in October may accelerate the supply adjustment, and short - term rebound risks should be vigilant [1]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Price and Inventory: As of November 21, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 942.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 714.99 million tons, a 4.38% decrease from last week, and a 39.91% increase year - on - year. Soybean meal inventory was 115.15 million tons, a 15.97% increase from last week and a 49.47% increase year - on - year. The physical inventory of feed enterprises was 7.98 days, a 0.25 - day decrease from the previous period and the same as last year [3]. - Market Situation: Domestic soybean meal spot prices were basically stable, and the market trading sentiment was relatively active in the past two weeks. Some feed enterprises were considering purchasing basis contracts for the first quarter of next year. Oil mill crushing volume remained high, and the inventory reduction was slow. The short - term supply was loose, and the spot basis was under pressure [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory and Market: As of November 21, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, the same as last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 million tons, a 0.19 - million - ton decrease from last week; unexecuted contracts were 0.01 million tons, a 0.19 - million - ton decrease from last week. The global rapeseed production has recovered this year, and Canadian rapeseed harvesting is basically completed. The domestic spot market faces slow trading and strong inventory reduction pressure. Port inventory pressure is high year - on - year, and the substitution demand for rapeseed meal is difficult to be driven by the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference. The fundamentals are weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term [6]. Palm Oil - Inventory and Export: As of November 21, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 66.71 million tons, a 2.13% increase from last week and a 31.34% increase year - on - year. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and the output increased by 10.32% month - on - month. From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased by 18.84% (ITS data) or 16.43% (Amspec data) compared with the same period last month [9]. - Market Trend: The export data in November was weak, but the decline has slightly recovered compared with the first 20 days. With the expected festival stocking demand in China and India in December and later, the price rebounded slightly after falling to a certain low. In the context of the expected inventory build - up in November, the short - term rebound is temporary [9]. Cotton - International Situation: In the US, new cotton is being harvested (79% progress), and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected (40.2% progress). In late November, precipitation in major cotton - growing areas increased, which was unfavorable for harvesting. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is between 1.6 - 2.0 million tons, and nearly 4.25 million tons have been purchased under the MSP. In late November, rainfall in the south and central regions was unfavorable for MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main - producing areas have started sowing new cotton for 2026. It is expected that there will be heavy rainfall in the main - producing areas by the end of November [11]. - Domestic Situation: New cotton picking is basically completed, the public inspection volume exceeds 3.7 million tons, and the delivery is nearing completion. The new - cotton sales progress is growing rapidly, and the cost of new - season lint is locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton volume was 22.3 million tons, almost the same as the previous month and 1.35 million tons higher than the same period last year. National commercial inventory increased to 328.24 million tons, higher than the same period last year. Xinjiang's commercial inventory increased to 231.15 million tons, and the inventory in inland provinces increased to 20.72 million tons. The finished - product inventory reduction is still differentiated. The demand in the downstream market has changed little, and the spring - summer orders for cotton cloth have slightly increased. The opening rates of spinning mills and cloth mills are basically the same as last month, and the export of textile and clothing in October was under pressure [12]. Red Dates - Supply and Price: Currently in the critical period of the new - old production season transition, the new - jujube harvest time is slightly earlier than the same period. The new - season red date output is expected to be between 500,000 - 600,000 tons, maintaining an oversupply pattern. The purchase prices in various regions have been stable recently [15]. - Inventory and Demand: The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises is 10,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of 490 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4,415 tons. The downstream demand has not improved significantly, and merchants are more interested in purchasing old jujubes with high cost - performance [15]. Live Pigs - Supply and Demand: In the short - term, the overall slaughter progress of the group is about 65.67%, and there is still some pressure on the social side to hold back the slaughter. The price difference between standard and fat pigs has widened recently. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets in October increased by 105,300 to 5.7813 million. In the long - term, the number of breeding sows decreased to 39.9 million in October. On the demand side, the downstream slaughter volume has increased, and cold - storage inventory is passively increasing. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail catering consumption has slightly improved [17]. - Market Trend: The near - month futures price has reached a new low and is close to the cash - flow cost of leading enterprises. With high positions, excessive short - selling is not advisable. The reduction of breeding sows may accelerate the supply adjustment, and short - term rebound risks should be vigilant [18]