Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel and Iron Products: Cautiously bearish on rebar and hot-rolled coil; short-term participation for iron ore [1] - Coking Products: Cautiously bullish on coke and coking coal [1] - Ferroalloys: Cautiously bullish on ferromanganese and ferrosilicon [1] Core Views - Rebar: Production and apparent demand increased month-on-month, inventory decreased month-on-month but remains at a high level, and the fundamental balance is weak. Short-term range-bound fluctuations are expected [1][4][5] - Hot-rolled Coil: Apparent demand and production increased month-on-month, inventory decreased slightly but is still the highest in recent years. Short-term range fluctuations are likely [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: Supply and demand weakened month-on-month, but high hot metal production provides continuous support. Short-term participation is recommended [1][6][7][8] - Coke: After four rounds of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved significantly, and the market expectation of price cuts increased. Short-term market sentiment has been released, and the market may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see [1][10][11][12] - Coking Coal: Domestic raw coal production decreased month-on-month, and the number of shut-down mines in the main production areas increased. The short-term supply is expected to remain low. The market decline sentiment has been released, and the price is approaching the lower limit of the range. Short positions should stop losses and exit, and new positions should wait and see [1][13][14][15] - Ferromanganese: The price of port ore is relatively firm, the supply in the production area continues to decline, demand improves marginally, and inventory remains at the highest level in the same period. Downstream steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and the bidding price reduction sentiment is strong. Short-term narrow-range fluctuations are expected, and the valuation level is relatively low. Cautious operation is recommended [1][17][18][19] - Ferrosilicon: The industry is mostly in a loss state but has not yet started large-scale production cuts. Demand improves marginally, downstream steel mills maintain on-demand procurement, and the bidding price reduction sentiment is strong. After the release of phased replenishment demand, the difficulty of inventory reduction increases. Short-term narrow-range fluctuations are expected, and the valuation level is relatively low. Cautious operation is recommended [1][17][18][19] Summary by Variety Rebar - Production and Demand: Production and apparent demand increased month-on-month, and inventory decreased month-on-month, but the absolute level remains high [1][4] - Market Situation: Fundamental balance is weak, and short-term range-bound fluctuations are expected [1][5] - Price Information: Futures prices (e.g., rebar 01 at 3106 with a rise of 17), spot prices (e.g., rebar in Shanghai at 3250 with a rise of 10), and relevant basis and spreads are provided [2] Hot-rolled Coil - Production and Demand: Apparent demand and production increased month-on-month, and inventory decreased slightly but is still the highest in recent years [1][4] - Market Situation: Short-term range fluctuations are likely [1][5] - Price Information: Futures prices (e.g., hot-rolled coil 01 at 3309 with a rise of 14), spot prices (e.g., hot-rolled coil in Shanghai at 3300 with a rise of 10), and relevant basis and spreads are provided [2] Iron Ore - Supply and Demand: Supply and demand weakened month-on-month, with increased overseas ore shipments and reduced arrivals. However, high hot metal production provides continuous support [1][6][7] - Market Situation: Short-term participation is recommended [1][8] - Price Information: Futures prices (e.g., iron ore 01 at 794), spot prices (e.g., Yangdi powder at 708), and relevant spreads, basis, and freight rates are provided [6] Coke - Supply and Demand: After four rounds of price increases, the profit of coke enterprises improved significantly, and the market expectation of price cuts increased. Iron ore production decreased slightly month-on-month but remains at a high level in the same period, and steel mills' replenishment enthusiasm decreased [1][10][11] - Market Situation: Short-term market sentiment has been released, and the market may fluctuate. It is advisable to wait and see [1][11][12] - Price Information: Futures prices (e.g., coke 01 at 1619.0 with a fall of -24.0), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang quasi-first-class metallurgical coke at 1430), and relevant basis, spreads, and weekly data are provided [10] Coking Coal - Supply and Demand: Domestic raw coal production decreased month-on-month, and the number of shut-down mines in the main production areas increased. Imported Mongolian coal transactions were light, and the online auction failure rate increased significantly. After the release of short-term phased demand, the replenishment willingness decreased, and the mine inventory increased month-on-month [1][13][14] - Market Situation: The market decline sentiment has been released, and the price is approaching the lower limit of the range. Short positions should stop losses and exit, and new positions should wait and see [1][14][15] - Price Information: Futures prices (e.g., coking coal 01 at 1084.5 with a fall of -1.5), spot prices (e.g., Lvliang main coking coal at 1530), and relevant basis, spreads, and weekly data are provided [13] Ferromanganese - Supply and Demand: The price of port ore is relatively firm, the supply in the production area continues to decline, demand improves marginally, and inventory remains at the highest level in the same period. Downstream steel mills replenish inventory as needed, and the bidding price reduction sentiment is strong [1][17][18] - Market Situation: Short-term narrow-range fluctuations are expected, and the valuation level is relatively low. Cautious operation is recommended [1][18][19] - Price Information: Futures prices (e.g., ferromanganese 01 at 2630 with a fall of -6), spot prices (e.g., ferromanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia at 5500 with a fall of -20), and relevant basis, spreads, and weekly data are provided [17] Ferrosilicon - Supply and Demand: The industry is mostly in a loss state but has not yet started large-scale production cuts. Demand improves marginally, downstream steel mills maintain on-demand procurement, and the bidding price reduction sentiment is strong. After the release of phased replenishment demand, the difficulty of inventory reduction increases [1][17][18] - Market Situation: Short-term narrow-range fluctuations are expected, and the valuation level is relatively low. Cautious operation is recommended [1][18][19] - Price Information: Futures prices (e.g., ferrosilicon 01 at 5392 with a fall of -32), spot prices (e.g., ferrosilicon 72 in Inner Mongolia at 5200 with a fall of -30), and relevant basis, spreads, and weekly data are provided [17]
中辉黑色观点-20251127
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-27 03:04