光大期货金融期货日报-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Index: Volatile [1] - Treasury Bonds: Relatively Strong [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock Index: After the liquidity-driven market since June ended, the market refocused on fundamental logic. New productive forces represented by AI in the technology upstream hardware manufacturing have significant price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatch, with considerable medium-term profitability. However, related themes have risen significantly since June, lacking further event catalysts near the end of the year, and entered a volatile market in November. Traditional economic sectors like consumption and cyclical themes are still recovering, and it's difficult to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Market trading volume, volatility, and risk appetite are decreasing, and the index is expected to be volatile in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also have divergent expectations, with the actual profitability of AI being questioned, the U.S. government shutdown causing an economic data vacuum, and the Fed's hawkish stance on a December rate cut leading to a correction in U.S. tech stocks last week [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board yesterday. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on November 26, with a net withdrawal of funds. The liquidity is reasonably abundant under the central bank's continuous support, but the pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is low, and the expectation of a central bank rate cut is weak. The bond market lacks upward momentum. In the short term, there is a brief domestic economic data vacuum period in late November, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On November 26, 2025, IH rose 0.18% to 2,964.6, IF rose 0.45% to 4,493.0, IC rose 0.14% to 6,909.4, and IM rose 0.06% to 7,176.2 compared with the previous day [3]. - Stock Indexes: On November 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite 50 rose 0.12% to 2,971.8, the CSI 300 rose 0.61% to 4,517.6, the CSI 500 rose 0.15% to 6,965.0, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.02% to 7,248.4 compared with the previous day [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On November 26, 2025, TS fell 0.05% to 102.37, TF fell 0.23% to 105.74, T fell 0.34% to 107.85, and TL fell 0.76% to 114.29 compared with the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market News - At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs today, regarding Japan's cabinet resolution on November 25 on the so - called "Taiwan issue," the spokesperson Mao Ning stated that Japan's prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan seriously violate the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan, damage the political foundation of bilateral relations, and challenge the post - war international order. China firmly opposes this. Japan's so - called "consistent position" is far from enough [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, their monthly basis trends, etc. [5][6][7] - Treasury Bond Futures: The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, and cross - period spreads of different maturities, as well as cross - variety spreads and capital interest rates [12][13][19] - Exchange Rates: The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and exchange rates of the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the yen [21][22][28]