20251127申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251127

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The copper price may be on the strong side, and the zinc price may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - For zinc, the zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, but the smelting output continues to increase. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Market Situation: Night - session copper prices closed higher. The concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap [2] - Strategy Direction: The copper price may be on the strong side. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Market Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 86,560 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,953 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 8.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 156,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 825 tons [2] 3.2 Zinc - Market Situation: Night - session zinc prices closed. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, but the smelting output continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is showing negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2] - Strategy Direction: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Market Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 55 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,055 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 163.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 48,000 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 575 tons [2] 3.3 Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,425 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,864 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 26.84 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 543,725 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,225 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 115,940 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,190 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,845 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 198.49 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,482 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,005 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 40.08 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 264,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 700 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 294,640 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 330 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 38,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 185.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,085 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2]