集运日报：受悲观情绪影响，盘面持续大幅下行，建议观望为主，运价无明显波动。-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to pessimistic sentiment, the market has been declining significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuations. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3] 3. Summary of Related Contents 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On November 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [2] - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [2] 3.2 PMI Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2] 3.3 Main Contract Information - On November 26, the main contract 2602 closed at 1387.4, a decline of 7.62%, with a trading volume of 38,100 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 4222 lots from the previous day [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has retraced, and the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600. After the market dives sharply, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losses. Set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] 3.5 Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] 3.6 Geopolitical News - On November 25 (local time), the Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar held talks in Cairo on the Gaza cease - fire. They agreed to continue cooperation and coordination with the US to maintain the Gaza cease - fire and implement the second phase of the cease - fire agreement [5] - The CEO of Maersk said that he was encouraged by the Gaza peace process, which would help establish freedom of navigation in the Mandeb Strait and restore normal trade routes [5]