沪铜日评：美联储12月降息预期升温支撑铜价-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The weak employment performance in the US has increased the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December, and multiple overseas copper mines have production disturbances, which may make the Shanghai copper price cautiously bullish [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai copper futures active contract was 86,590, a decrease of 10 from the previous day; the trading volume was 107,213 lots, an increase of 20,231 lots; the open interest was 204,728 lots, an increase of 5,146 lots; the inventory was 39,825 tons, a decrease of 1,140 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 86,655, an increase of 45; the average price of SMM + water copper open discount was 35, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM premium copper open discount was 150, an increase of 5; the average price of SMM mixed copper open discount was -35, unchanged; the average price of SMM Guixi copper open discount was 175, an increase of 5 [2] - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic disk) was 10,953, an increase of 120.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was 30.83, an increase of 21.31; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 month contract spread was 138.27, a decrease of 8.99; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9056, a decrease of 0.09 [2] Supply - Demand - Inventory - Supply side: There are disturbances in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index continues to be negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation of domestic copper concentrates. The supply of scrap copper has increased, and the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates have increased. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: The capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared with last week, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper cups has decreased [2] - Inventory side: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has increased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased compared with last week [2] Trading Strategy - Short - term, lightly go long on the main contract on dips. Pay attention to the support level around 82,000 - 84,000 and the resistance level around 88,000 - 90,000 for Shanghai copper. For LME copper, pay attention to the support level around 10,300 - 10,500 and the resistance level around 11,000 - 11,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.5 - 4.8 and the resistance level around 5.2 - 5.5 [2]