光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Wide - amplitude oscillation [1] - Soda Ash: Wide - amplitude oscillation [1] - Glass: Continuous rebound [1] Core Views - Urea: On Wednesday, the urea futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot market in some areas declined slightly, with supply at a high level and demand improving. Enterprise inventories continued to fall, strengthening the price - holding mentality. The international market has uncertain factors. The futures market is expected to continue a strong - oscillation trend [1]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price was firm and oscillated. The spot market quotation was stable, with supply stable and demand improving. Enterprise inventories continued to fall, strengthening the price - holding mentality. The futures price will continue a low - level wide - amplitude fluctuation trend [1]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the glass futures price fluctuated strongly. The spot market stopped falling, with supply stable and demand improving. Inventories decreased, and the futures market may continue to rebound in the short term, but a market reversal requires more positive factors [1]. Market Information Urea - On November 26, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 7,390, an increase of 88 from the previous trading day, with 820 valid forecasts [4]. - On November 26, the daily output of the urea industry was 203,400 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous working day, and an increase of 11,700 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. - On November 26, the small - particle urea spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1,630 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), 1,650 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 1,620 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton) respectively [4]. - As of the week of November 26, the urea enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons (- 5.10%) from the previous week [5]. Soda Ash & Glass - On November 26, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 4,710, an increase of 1,058 from the previous trading day, with 1,401 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged from the previous trading day [7]. - On November 26, the soda ash spot prices in different regions varied. For example, in North China, the light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton and the heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - On November 26, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 82.26%, the same as the previous working day [8]. - On November 26, the average price of the float glass market was 1,091 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the industry's daily output was 157,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts such as the closing price, basis, trading volume, and open interest of urea and soda ash futures contracts, as well as the spot price trends of urea and soda ash, and the futures price differences between urea - methanol and glass - soda ash. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [10][11][16][17]