黑色商品日报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be narrow - range consolidation. The production of building materials has declined, inventory reduction has increased, and apparent demand has slightly decreased. The current market is in the off - season, and there is insufficient upward drive for prices [1]. - The short - term trend of iron ore is expected to be volatile. The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil have decreased, iron - making water production has declined, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports has decreased [1]. - The short - term trend of coking coal is expected to be wide - range volatility. The supply shortage has eased, downstream procurement is cautious, and coal mines face shipping pressure [1]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be wide - range volatility. The cost of coke enterprises has improved, inventory is accumulating, and steel mills' demand for coke has decreased [1]. - The short - term trend of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is expected to be volatile. The raw material cost trends are divergent, the overall fundamentals have limited drivers, and the inventory pressure is large [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel Products: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3099 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 100,000 lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and the national building materials trading volume was 93,200 tons. This week, the national building materials production decreased by 120,400 tons to 3.6401 million tons, social inventory decreased by 162,100 tons to 5.9671 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 94,400 tons to 3.3191 million tons, and the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 47,700 tons to 3.8966 million tons [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 797 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton or 0.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 200,000 lots and a decrease of 17,000 lots in positions. The prices of mainstream port spot varieties showed a mixed trend. The supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, iron - making water production decreased by 6,000 tons to 2.3628 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 37.67%. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 million tons, a decrease of 779,900 tons from the previous period, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 750,000 tons to 90.01 million tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1084.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.14%, with a decrease of 20,519 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi decreased by 90 yuan to 1580 yuan/ton ex - factory. The supply shortage has eased, and downstream procurement is cautious [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1619 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton or 1.46%, with an increase of 768 lots in positions. The spot price of coke at ports decreased. The cost of coke enterprises has improved, and the inventory is accumulating [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 5630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from the previous day, with a decrease of 14,855 lots in positions to 370,000 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5480 - 5670 yuan/ton. The raw material cost trends are divergent, and the inventory pressure is large [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 5416 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.7% from the previous day, with an increase of 11,668 lots in positions to 229,300 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5080 - 5150 yuan/ton. The cost support expectation is weak, and the overall new drivers are limited [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: The 1 - 5 month spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon were - 17.0, 9.0, 23.5, - 146.0, - 92.0, - 52.0, and 16.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of 2.0, - 1.0, - 1.0, - 0.5, 6.0, 10.0, and 0.0 [4]. - Basis: The basis of the 01 contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon were 151.0, - 14.0, 50.7, 3.0, 143.5, - 130.0, and - 192.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of 7.0, - 5.0, 0.3, 13.1, 1.5, - 14.0, and 2.0 [4]. - Spot Prices: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou were 3250.0, 3220.0, and 3470.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 3290.0, 3290.0, and 3340.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot price of PB powder was 798.0 yuan/ton; the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1460.0 yuan/ton; the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1420.0 yuan/ton; the spot prices of manganese silicon in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi were 5480.0, 5500.0, and 5530.0 yuan/ton respectively; the spot prices of ferrosilicon in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were 5100.0, 5120.0, and 5150.0 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The rebar's disk profit was - 68.6, the long - process profit was - 109.2, and the short - process profit was 38.0. The hot - rolled coil to rebar spread was 205.0, the rebar to iron ore ratio was 3.9, the coking coal to iron ore ratio was 1.5, the coke to iron ore ratio was 2.0, the rebar to coke ratio was 1.9, and the difference between the two silicons was 238.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][10][11][15]. - Main Contract Basis: The report presents the basis charts of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][21][22][23][24]. - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report presents the 01 - 05 and 05 - 10 (or 05 - 09) contract spread charts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][32][34][35][38][39]. - Inter - variety Contract Spreads: The report presents the charts of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread, rebar to iron ore ratio, rebar to coke ratio, coke to iron ore ratio, coking coal to coke ratio, and difference between the two silicons of the main contracts [44][46][48]. - Rebar Profits: The report presents the charts of the rebar's disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [50][53]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry's spot trading, research, and consulting [55]. - Zhang Xiaojin: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [55]. - Liu Xi: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [55]. - Zhang Chunjie: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in combining financial theory with industrial operations [56].