国投期货综合晨报-20251127

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various commodities, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price forecasts [2][3][4] - Different commodities show different trends, such as some in range - bound oscillations, some facing supply - demand imbalances, and others affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [14][20][21] Commodity Summaries Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, but there is still a downward drive in the long - term. The market faces a greater inventory build - up expectation in Q4 and Q1 next year. The near - term risk is Russia's stance on the new peace plan [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Overnight fuel oil prices rose due to cost - end increase. High - sulfur fuel oil may be supported by short - term supply disruptions, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken as the gasoline - diesel spread narrows [21] - Asphalt: Recent shipments in East and South China improved, and inventory declined. The December production plan decreased, and demand will seasonally decline. The spot price is supported at 3000 yuan/ton, but there is medium - to - long - term pressure [22] Metals - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose to $11,000, and SHFE copper followed. The probability of a US rate cut next month increased to 85%, boosting copper prices. Short - term trading should focus on volume [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, SHFE aluminum rose slightly. After the price correction last week, downstream restocked at low prices. The industry has limited contradictions, and the price is in high - level oscillations [5] - Zinc: The probability of a Fed rate cut in December increased to 84%, and the support at the bottom is strong due to the decline in TC. However, the domestic demand outlook is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate between 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [8] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: SHFE nickel rebounded, but the market sentiment was cold. Stainless steel inventory decreased, but the cost support weakened. The fundamental situation is weak, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [10] - Tin: Overnight, LME tin rose to $38,000, and SHFE tin followed with increased positions. The short - term probability of a further rise increased [11] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Bean Meal: The night - session of the Dalian soybean meal futures followed the US soybean trend and showed a stabilizing trend. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is at a high level. South American new - season soybeans are affected by La Nina [35] - Corn: The night - session of corn futures continued to correct. North port corn prices are firm, and farmers are reluctant to sell. The inventory of downstream industries is low, and the replenishment intention is increasing. The 01 contract of Dalian corn futures is technically strong, and short - selling on highs is recommended [39] - Palm Oil & Soybean Oil: The marginal negative factors for palm oil have eased, and the change in palm oil may trigger short - covering. Soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [36] Others - Shipping Index (European Line): The near - month contract of the container shipping index (European line) is weak due to the weak spot market expectation. The 02 - month contract may have some recovery space if the cargo volume continues to recover. The far - month contract is under pressure from geopolitical factors [20] - Urea: The supply of urea is abundant, but the concentrated release of downstream demand has improved the trading atmosphere. However, the supply - surplus pattern is expected to continue [23] - Methanol: The near - month contract of methanol rose, and the spread strengthened. The overseas production reduction is being realized, and the port is expected to reduce inventory. It is recommended to go long unilaterally or do a positive spread [24] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is in an oscillating trend. The export situation has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the supply - demand situation is still high - supply and low - demand. Caustic soda is in a weak operation with high supply and low demand [28] - Glass & Soda Ash: The sales of glass in Shahe improved, and the price rose slightly. The production capacity may be further compressed. It is expected to oscillate strongly. Soda ash is in a supply - surplus situation in the long - term, and the strategy of long glass and short soda ash can be considered [32][34] - Stock Index & Treasury Bond: The stock index futures showed a differentiated trend, and the market is waiting for the resonance of geopolitical situation easing and Fed rate - cut expectation. Treasury bond futures closed down, and the market is worried about bond repayment risks [46][47]