甲醇日报：伊朗停车密集增多，冬检逐步兑现-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Iran's methanol plant shutdowns are increasing, and winter maintenance is being implemented as expected. Attention should be paid to the duration of the maintenance and the progress of subsequent shipments. - The port inventory has started to decline significantly as the window for the port to flow back to the inland has opened, alleviating the port inventory pressure. - The coal - based methanol production in the inland region remains at a relatively high level, and the inventory of inland factories has increased again. The MTO units are in a state of maintenance or low - load operation, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year. The traditional downstream industries have different operating conditions, with acetic acid operating at a low level, formaldehyde at a low - load in the off - season, and only MTBE at a relatively high operating rate. - The recommended strategy is to cautiously buy and hedge MA2605 on dips, widen the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 on dips, and there is no strategy for cross - variety trading [4]. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions and the main futures contract (e.g., methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][23]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), the import spread of methanol in Taicang, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [27][28][29]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report includes the total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operating rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [36][37][39]. IV. Regional Price Differences - It presents the price differences between regions, such as the price differences between Lubei and Northwest, East China and Inner Mongolia, Taicang and Lunan, etc. [41][51][53]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [52][62].