FICC日报：美联储降息预期升温，市场风险偏好抬升-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased, and the market risk appetite has risen. The domestic economic foundation still needs to be consolidated, and policies are being implemented to promote consumption. Different sectors in the commodity market have different trends, and attention should be paid to potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The full - text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released on October 28, aiming to significantly increase economic and other strengths by 2035. The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5%, boosting market sentiment. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and China officially postponed tariffs on November 5. In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a 0.8 decline from the previous month. China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry also slowed down. The State Council executive meeting on November 14 studied "two - major" construction and consumption - promotion policies. On November 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, the ChiNext Index rose more than 2%, and the large - consumption sector strengthened in the late session. Commodities showed mixed trends [2] Fed and US Economy - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20 to over 70%. Some Fed officials support a December rate cut. In the US, the PPI in September increased by 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI growth was lower than expected. The US S&P Global Composite PMI in November reached 54.8, the highest in four months. The non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, but the unemployment rate rose and wage growth declined. Data releases for October are affected, and the next Fed chair candidate may influence monetary policy. Japan has a "stock - bond - exchange" triple - kill, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November fell below the boom - bust line [3] Commodity Market - In the commodity market, during the inflation expectation game stage, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The black sector is still dragged by downstream demand expectations, the non - ferrous sector is boosted by global easing expectations, the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term, and the "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector and the procurement plan of Chinese agricultural products from the US are worthy of attention. After the short - term adjustment of precious metals, there are opportunities for bargain - hunting [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Important News - Six departments issued a plan to enhance consumer goods supply - demand adaptability and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure by 2027 and form a high - quality development pattern by 2030. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly on November 26, the ChiNext Index rose more than 2%, and the large - consumption sector strengthened. Ukraine's President Zelensky may meet with US President Trump to reach a peace agreement. Kevin Hassett is considered a leading candidate for the next Fed chair. The yields of US 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds changed, and the UK OBR adjusted its economic and fiscal outlook, with traders increasing bets on the Bank of England's interest rate cut [5]