橡胶产业数据日报-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. With the supply side presenting stable raw - material prices in Thailand, and specific price levels in Yunnan and Hainan. The mid - stream inventory in Qingdao has increased, and the downstream tire factory capacity utilization has decreased. After the RU warehouse receipt cancellation, the current number of warehouse receipts on the disk is at a low level. Considering the end - of - year period and the main contract roll - over stage in the commodity market, the overall market lacks driving forces, and the rubber is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The trading strategy is to temporarily hold off on unilateral positions and focus on the arbitrage of going long on NR and short on RU [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - Domestic Futures: RU main contract is at 15195, up 70; NR main contract is at 12165, up 15; BR main contract is at 10360, up 90 [3] - Foreign Futures: Tocom RSS3 is at 334.1 yen/kg, down 1.5; Sicom TF is at 170.5 cents/kg, unchanged [3] - Inter - period Spreads: RU2605 - RU2601 is 60, down 15; RU2609 - RU2605 is 35, up 5; NR main - second main is - 25, up 5; BR main - second main is 5, down 10 [3] - Inter - variety Spreads: RU - NR is 3030, up 55; RU - BR is 4835, down 20; NR - BR is 1805, down 75 [3] - Inter - market Spreads: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is 5, up 24; NR - Sicom TF ($) is 13, up 5 [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - Thailand (Baht/kg): Glue is 57.00, unchanged; cup - lump price is not available [3] - Hainan and Yunnan (Yuan/ton): Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14300, unchanged; Hainan glue for whole milk is 13100 - 14200, unchanged; Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 13900, unchanged; Yunnan rubber block for whole milk is 13900, unchanged [3] 3.3 Factory Costs and Profits - Whole - latex Delivery Profits: Hainan is - 2548, down 29; Yunnan is - 428, up 71; Thailand is 346, down 10 [3] - Concentrated Latex Production Profits: Hainan is - 364, down 65 [3] - Smoked Sheet and 20 - grade Rubber Gross Profits: Thai smoked sheet is 1370, down 14; Thai 20 - grade rubber is - 515, up 270 [3] 3.4 Domestic Spot - Light - colored Rubber: Old whole milk is 14800, up 50; Vietnamese 3L is 15150, down 100; Thai mixed rubber is 14550, unchanged; Malaysian mixed rubber is 14500, unchanged [3] - Dark - colored Rubber: Thai standard is 12991, up 30; domestic standard II is 13750, unchanged [3] - Latex: Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk is 11450, down 50; Shanghai: Hainan bulk is 11200, unchanged [3] - Synthetic Rubber: Cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10400, down 100; Styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 10850, down 100; Styrene - butadiene SBR1712 is 9850, down 50 [3] - Mixed Rubber: Thai mixed CIF is 1815, unchanged; Malaysian frost CIF is 1805, unchanged [3] 3.5 Overseas Spot - Standard Rubber: Thai standard CIF is 1815, unchanged; Malaysian standard CIF is 1805, unchanged; Indian standard CIF is 1730, unchanged [3] 3.6 Futures - Spot Spreads - RU Spreads: RU - Thai mixed is 645, up 70; RU - old whole milk is 395, up 20; RU - Vietnamese 3L is 45, up 170 [3] - NR Spreads: NR - Thai standard delivery profit is - 835, up 15; NR - Indian standard delivery profit is - 198, up 15; NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit is - 765, up 15 [3] - Spot Spreads - Variety Spreads: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) is 10, unchanged; Vietnamese 3L - Thai mixed is 600, down 100; domestic standard II - Thai mixed is - 800, unchanged; old whole milk - Vietnamese 3L is - 350, up 150; domestic 9710 - Thai mixed is - 350, unchanged; Thai standard - African 10 - grade ($) is 110, unchanged [3] 3.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - Exchange Rates: US dollar index is 99.8123, US dollar/Chinese yuan is 7.0796, down 0.003; US dollar/Japanese yen is 156.0730, unchanged; US dollar/Thai baht is 32.2675, unchanged [3] - Interest Rates: SHIBOR - overnight is 1.316, unchanged; SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.453, up 0.020 [3] 3.8 Supply, Demand and Market Analysis - Supply Side: Thai raw - material glue price is 57 baht/kg, unchanged; cup - lump price is not available. Yunnan glue for whole - milk production is 13900 yuan/ton, unchanged; for concentrated latex is 14200 yuan/ton, unchanged. Hainan glue for whole - milk production is 16200 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; for concentrated latex is 16200 yuan/ton, up 0.62% [3] - Mid - stream Inventory: As of November 23, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 46.89 tons, a 3.60% increase from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory is 7.19 tons, with a 7.97% increase; the general - trade inventory is 39.7 tons, with a 2.84% increase [3] - Downstream Tire Factories: The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.04%, a 2.25 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 1.56 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.36%, a 3.63 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 10.40 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [3]