国泰海通晨报-20251127

Macro Research - The report highlights a unique economic condition in the US characterized by "weak employment + strong growth," indicating a historical disconnection between employment and economic growth. The average annual growth rate of the labor force is projected to be only 0.3-0.5% over the next decade, significantly lower than the 1.3% observed in the past five years [1][16] - The report identifies high interest rates as the primary reason for the employment slowdown, followed by the adverse effects of labor hoarding during the pandemic. The impact of artificial intelligence on employment is deemed negligible, while the effects of reduced immigration and government layoffs are considered limited [2][16] - The strong economic growth is attributed to the marginal productivity decline of labor, with significant employment growth occurring in low-GDP-contributing sectors like education and healthcare. Capital expansion driven by AI investment and its wealth effect is seen as the main driver of US economic growth [2][17] Military Industry Research - The military sector experienced a decline recently, with the US Navy initiating recovery operations for two aircraft that crashed in the South China Sea. The report notes that the military industry remains on a long-term upward trend due to increasing geopolitical tensions [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of advanced military technology and equipment in modern warfare, suggesting a focus on aerospace and satellite internet sectors as key areas for investment [7] Automotive Industry Research - The Guangzhou International Auto Show showcased a strong focus on electrification and intelligence, with 629 out of 1,085 vehicles displayed being new energy vehicles, accounting for 58% of the total [8][9] - Companies like XPeng and Changan presented their latest advancements in embodied intelligence, indicating a shift towards integrating robotics into automotive design and functionality [8][9] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the automotive sector, with a focus on product definition, technological self-research, and systematic capabilities as key competitive factors moving forward [11][9]