农产品日报：郑棉上下空间受限，短期延续震荡运行-20251127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with limited up and down space. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases. It's advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month 05 contract at low prices [1][2] - For sugar, short - term prices have limited downward space and may have a weak rebound, but the medium - to - long - term domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price trend may not be optimistic next year [3][5] - For pulp, the current fundamental improvement is insufficient, and pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,625 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 101 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,882 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. As of October 9, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 1.065 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, accounting for 40.11% of the annual expected exports, and cumulatively shipped 318,000 tons with a shipment rate of 29.89%. China had cumulatively signed 28,000 tons of US cotton imports, accounting for 2.65% of the signed US cotton, and cumulatively shipped 5,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA report significantly increased the global cotton production in 2025/26, and the global cotton ending inventory increased significantly compared to September and shifted from destocking to restocking. The sales pressure of US cotton increased significantly. The short - term external market is expected to be under pressure. - Domestic: After the National Day, the expected new cotton output decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, pushing up the Zhengzhou cotton futures price. However, there is strong hedging pressure after the price increase, and the expected output in Xinjiang has increased again. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downside space of the futures price is limited [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,379 yuan/ton yesterday, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,470 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,480 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. It is expected that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of November will be 18.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.9%, and the sugar output will be 1.075 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.9% [3] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The supply in Brazil in the second half of October was strong, strengthening the surplus expectation. India's sugar production is expected to rebound significantly in the 25/26 season, and the global bumper harvest pattern suppresses the price. However, the short - term export volume in India is difficult to increase, and the supply pressure in Brazil will gradually weaken, so the downward space of raw sugar is limited. - Zhengzhou sugar: The latest announced sugar and syrup imports were higher than expected, and the sugar mills in Guangxi have successively started crushing, so the short - term supply pressure is high, and the price has reached a new low [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,208 yuan/ton yesterday, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,465 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,955 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import wood pulp spot market had some price fluctuations, with some prices of imported softwood pulp falling and some prices of imported hardwood pulp rising [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: In September, the European pulp port inventory decreased month - on - month but was still at a relatively high level. The domestic port de - stocking speed was lower than expected, and the supply remained loose. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. The weak domestic demand was the core factor suppressing the pulp price. Although there was a large - scale new production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious [7]