化工日报：天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For RU and NR, with the decrease of rainfall in Thailand, the futures price has dropped. The inventory in Qingdao Port and social inventory in China are increasing, and the increase rate has accelerated recently. The end - of - season in Yunnan is not conducive to the output of RU deliverable products, while Hainan may have an increase in raw materials. Thailand's northern region is in the peak production season, and the inventory of dark rubber in China may continue to increase. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The supply - demand difference may be beneficial to the spread expansion between RU and NR and the reverse arbitrage logic of NR, with prices moving in a range [10] - For BR, the upstream device has some changes, but the short - term supply change is limited. The production profit of private enterprises has improved, and the supply is expected to remain abundant. The downstream demand has no highlights, and the recovery space of tire factory operating rates is limited. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to be weak due to inventory pressure [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,195 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,165 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,720 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports from January to October 2025: The export volume was 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - China's natural rubber imports in October 2025: The import volume was 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - ANRPC September 2025 report forecast: The global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports in the first three quarters of 2025: The total export volume (excluding compound rubber) was 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export volume of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total export volume to China was 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export volume of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export volume of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export volume of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - China's passenger car market in October 2025: The retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%, ending two consecutive months of growth. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - EU passenger car market in September 2025: The sales volume increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: RU basis was - 395 yuan/ton (- 20), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (+ 70), NR basis was 826 yuan/ton (+ 15); whole latex was 14,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (+ 0), 3L spot was 15,150 yuan/ton (- 100). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,750 yuan/ton (+ 0) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.91 Thai baht/kg (- 0.46), Thai latex was 57.00 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.95 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.85), the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 Thai baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 468,877 tons (+ 16,288), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 39,600 tons (- 68,870), and the NR futures inventory was 50,199 tons (+ 504) [6] Cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads on November 26, 2025: BR basis was - 160 yuan/ton (- 190), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (- 100), the quotation of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,250 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 9,880 yuan/ton (- 40), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,403 yuan/ton (unchanged) [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis BR was 72.64% (+ 2.71%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of BR traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9]