化工日报：EG震荡运行，基差继续下跌-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core View - The EG contract closed at 3896 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day. The EG spot price in the East China market was 3910 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.20%. The EG spot basis in East China was 18 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The production profit for ethylene - based EG was -60 USD/ton, up 2 USD/ton, and for coal - based syngas EG was -1025 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton [1]. - The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 73.2 tons (CCF data, unchanged) and 63.3 tons (Longzhong data, up 1.5 tons). The planned arrivals at the main ports this week are 9.5 tons, and at the secondary ports are 1.4 tons, indicating a slightly lower - than - normal level overall [2]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level, and some short - flow oil chemical plants face production pressure. Overseas, there are limited changes in ethylene glycol plants, with a stable short - term port inventory, but there are plans for large Saudi ships to arrive in early December. On the demand side, the low - inventory polyester load provides some support, but orders are weakening marginally [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The EG main contract price and the East China spot price changed, and the basis decreased [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profits of ethylene - based and coal - based syngas EG have changed, and the domestic ethylene glycol load has decreased from a high level [1][2]. International Spread - No specific data or analysis was provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The low - inventory polyester load provides support, but orders are marginally weaker [2]. Inventory Data - Different inventory data from CCF and Longzhong are presented, and the planned arrivals are analyzed, with an expectation of stable and slightly decreasing inventory [2].