聚烯烃日报：需求延续弱势，成本端支撑乏力-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for polyolefins continues to be weak, and the cost - side support is insufficient. The market for both PE and PP is facing challenges in supply - demand balance and cost support [1][3]. - For PE, the supply pressure remains due to new capacity release and limited future planned maintenance, while the demand is entering the off - season, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening [3]. - For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short - term. Although some short - term maintenance eases the supply pressure to some extent, the demand is also weakening, and the cost support from oil - based production is weakening while that from PDH is strengthening [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 6707 yuan/ton (-55), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The LL North China spot price is 6800 yuan/ton (+0), the LL East China spot price is 6900 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP East China spot price is 6350 yuan/ton (-10). The LL North China basis is 93 yuan/ton (+55), the LL East China basis is 193 yuan/ton (+55), and the PP East China basis is 85 yuan/ton (+42) [2]. 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate is 82.7% (-0.4%), and PP operating rate is 78.3% (-1.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 379.1 yuan/ton (+82.6), the PP oil - based production profit is - 400.9 yuan/ton (+82.6), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 437.6 yuan/ton (-23.2) [2]. 3.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is 8.9 yuan/ton (+20.0), the PP import profit is - 232.6 yuan/ton (-0.9), and the PP export profit is 2.9 US dollars/ton (+0.1) [2]. 3.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 49.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.7% (-0.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.2% (+0.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.6% (+0.0%) [2]. 3.6 Polyolefin Inventory No specific data or analysis provided in the given text. 3.7 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see; in the short - term, with weak cost - side support, the futures market may show a weak bottom - side oscillating trend [4]. - Inter - period: For L01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices; for PP01 - 05, conduct a reverse arbitrage at high prices [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4].