农产品日报：晚富士出库节奏偏缓，红枣新货供应增加-20251127

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple Strategy: Neutral to Bullish [4] - Red Date Strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current apple market has a slow consumption rhythm and weak demand. The market is affected by factors such as high prices and the impact of citrus fruits. However, the current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. The future market needs to focus on terminal consumption recovery, the impact of storage structure differentiation, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival [3][4]. - Red Dates: The red date market is currently in a critical period of transition between the off - season and peak season and the alternation of old and new seasons. There is a large inventory pressure due to the superposition of old and new seasons, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The market's future expectations are relatively pessimistic. The actual consumption situation on the consumer side will be the focus of market attention [8]. Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,531 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.42% [1]. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 2031 changed by - 40 from the previous day. The price of semi - commercial late Fuji above 70 in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP01 - 1231 changed by - 40 from the previous day [1]. Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of - 0.16% [5]. - Spot: The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 260 changed by +15 from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The in - warehouse trading of late Fuji is dull, and the overall shipment is average. The出库 speed in the western production areas has slightly slowed down, and the Shandong production area has sporadic shipments, mainly through foreign trade channels. After a round of replenishment, the market atmosphere in the production areas has become dull due to slow sales. The price of high - quality goods remains stable, and the short - term market is expected to remain stable under the support of foreign trade channels [2]. Red Dates - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in the Xinjiang production area is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% of the total output. The price in the production area is weakly stable. The acquisition progress in Aksu and Alar is relatively fast, while the transfer progress in Kashgar is slow. The new goods in the Hebei and Guangdong markets are gradually on the market, and the downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to remain weakly stable [6][7]. Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price showed an upward trend yesterday. The in - warehouse trading in each production area is dull, and the shipment speed has slowed down. The market is affected by the impact of citrus and other competing products, and the short - term market is expected to remain stable under the support of foreign trade channels. The storage volume is more than 10% lower than the same period last year, and the proportion of high - quality goods in the storage structure has decreased [3]. Red Dates - The red date futures price fell slightly yesterday. The acquisition progress in the Xinjiang production area varies. The new goods in the sales areas are gradually on the market, and the downstream merchants purchase on demand. The short - term spot price is expected to remain weakly stable. The market is currently in a critical period of transition, with large inventory pressure and unsolved supply - demand contradictions [8]. Group 6: Strategies Apple - Be neutral to bullish. Pay attention to terminal consumption recovery, the impact of storage structure differentiation, and the dynamics of merchants' inventory transfers before the Spring Festival. Be cautious when chasing high prices [4]. Red Dates - Be neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the high - priced new - season spot in the production area, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price. Otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to fall. The near - month contract may still have a certain downward space [9].