液化石油气日报：现货价格稳中有升，市场氛围尚可-20251127

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Mid - term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures market may maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. For the unilateral strategy, it is neutral, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. There are no specific strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Analysis - On November 26, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4500 yuan/ton, Northeast market 4000 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4300 - 4450 yuan/ton, East China market 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton, South China market 4250 - 4380 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 572 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 559 US dollars/ton, stable. In South China, the CIF price of propane was 564 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 551 US dollars/ton, stable. The RMB - converted prices of propane in East and South China increased by 21 and 22 yuan/ton respectively, while butane decreased by 2 yuan/ton in both regions [1]. - The external market continued to be in a volatile and strong state, and the prices were basically stable yesterday. High discounts increased the CIF cost, which supported the domestic spot and futures markets. Domestic spot prices generally rose steadily. Shandong's civil gas prices increased, while the mainstream transaction prices of civil gas and ether - after carbon four in East China remained stable. The market supply pressure was not large, and market participants were positive. Terminal demand was stable, and downstream users' purchasing sentiment was rational and stable [1]. - Recently, the LPG market showed a marginal tightening trend due to the decline in domestic refinery output and arrival volume, but the sustainability may be limited. Downstream chemical demand was suppressed by rising costs. On the other hand, Middle - East supply may increase after refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2]. - Cross - period: None [2]. - Cross - variety: None [2]. - Spot - futures: None [2]. - Options: None [2].