聚丙烯日报：成本支撑减弱，盘面偏弱震荡-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; the supply - demand gap narrows, but the lack of cost - side support limits the upward drive, and it may mainly fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have eased, international oil prices have dropped significantly, driving the support at the cost end of propylene to decline. Coupled with the unchanged expectation of loose propylene supply and demand, there is insufficient upward drive in the fundamentals, and the market continues to fluctuate weakly. On the supply side, the PDH units of Binhuahua and Xintai Petrochemical continue to be under maintenance, and the PDH unit of Juzhengyuan in South China is under maintenance, but the downstream supporting PP is also under maintenance, so the impact on supply is limited. On the demand side, the previously shut - down units have restarted intensively, and the overall downstream operation has increased slightly. However, considering that the downstream profit is under pressure due to the rising propylene price, the spread between PP and propylene has narrowed, and downstream users are resistant to high - priced raw materials, so the demand support for propylene has weakened. The international oil price trend is weak, and there is still pressure of oversupply in the medium and long term. The supply of propane from the Middle East to China is tight, and the price of external propane has strengthened slightly recently. Attention should be paid to cost - side disturbances [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 5820 yuan/ton (-18), the spot price of propylene in East China is 6000 yuan/ton (+40), the spot price of propylene in North China is 6075 yuan/ton (+55), the basis of propylene in East China is 180 yuan/ton (+58), and the basis of propylene in North China is 222 yuan/ton (+92) [1] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of propylene is 74% (-1%), the difference between China's CFR propylene and Japan's CFR naphtha is 174 US dollars/ton (+2), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 56 US dollars/ton (-2) [1] 3.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - The import profit is - 269 yuan/ton (+33) [1] 3.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - The operating rate of PP powder is 47% (+3.02%), and the production profit is - 365 yuan/ton (-15); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 75% (+0%), and the production profit is 647 yuan/ton (+8); the operating rate of n - butanol is 82% (-2%), and the production profit is - 329 yuan/ton (-35); the operating rate of octanol is 77% (+8%), and the production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+60); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 73% (-2%), and the production profit is 440 yuan/ton (-39); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 80% (+1%), and the production profit is - 464 yuan/ton (-62); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 79% (+12%), and the production profit is - 415 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.5 Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory is 45040 tons (-2150) [1]