石油沥青日报：供需两弱格局延续，市场低位震荡-20251127

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, waiting for the bottom signal to be consolidated [2] 2) Core View of the Report - The pattern of weak supply and demand in the asphalt market continues, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Although the downward pressure has been alleviated, the bottom rebound still requires more stimulating factors [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 26, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,043 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton or 0.56% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 152,279 lots, a decrease of 1,513 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 187,910 lots, an increase of 27,854 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,960 - 3,470 yuan/ton; South China, 3,050 - 3,210 yuan/ton; East China, 3,200 - 3,400 yuan/ton [1] - Recently, the crude oil price has been weak, and the cost support for asphalt is insufficient. However, after the absolute price has fallen to a low level, the bottom signal of the market has begun to appear. In terms of spot, the asphalt spot price in Shandong continued to decline yesterday, while the asphalt spot prices in other regions remained generally stable. The abundant supply of asphalt spot resources in Shandong has pressured the spot price down [1] - Fundamentally, the current pattern of weak supply and demand continues. Although the terminal demand is gradually entering the off-season, the refinery operating rate and production have shown a significant downward trend, and some refineries have switched to producing residual oil. The operating rate of asphalt plants has dropped to an absolute low. However, there are still no clear signs of the release of winter storage demand, the market sentiment is relatively flat, and the rebound momentum is still insufficient [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, waiting for the bottom signal to be consolidated [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]