航运日报：关注本周是否有船司宣涨12月下半月价格-20251127

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of December this week. The freight rates in December are continuously being adjusted, and the situation of the second - half - month quotes should be monitored. The 2026 February contract may have a large expected difference, and the far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.9184 million TEU [7]. - The trading volume and closing prices of various contracts of the container shipping index (European Line) futures are provided, along with the SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of November 26, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European Line) futures is 74,282.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 49,727.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1387.40, 1072.20, 1252.00, 1386.10, 1055.80, and 1622.40 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on November 21 is 1367 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 1645 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 2384 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on November 24 is 1639.37 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1107.85 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In November, the average weekly capacity for the remaining two weeks is 343,700 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 48 and 49 are 336,200 and 351,300 TEU respectively. In December, the average monthly weekly capacity is 303,900 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 are 305,800, 278,000, 302,600, and 329,100 TEU respectively. In January, the average monthly weekly capacity is 310,100 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 are 346,900, 293,400, 299,000, and 301,300 TEU respectively. There is 1 TBN and 3 blank sailings in December [4]. - As of November 23, 2025, 71 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk has launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea [3]. - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the probability of the Suez Canal resuming navigation in 2026 is relatively high. If it resumes, it may increase the effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The freight volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery and settlement price of the February 2026 contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. If the shipping companies' contract price - holding time is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may be at parity with the December contract [5].