尿素日报：厂内库存去库，现货成交好转-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea trading strengthened again after a slight price correction. The start - up of compound fertilizers in Northeast China is gradually increasing, and production scheduling in Shandong and Hubei has increased. The start - up of melamine has risen with rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage has gradually entered the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - and long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose, and the gas - head maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. Supported by reserve demand and increased compound fertilizer start - up, urea enterprises' shipments improved, factory inventories decreased, and port inventories increased slightly. The export quota news improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The report suggests a range - bound and slightly stronger trend for unilateral trading, a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, and no suggestion for inter - variety trading [2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1654 yuan/ton (+24). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1630 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1630 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1620 yuan/ton (-10). The basis in Shandong was - 24 yuan/ton (-24), in Henan was - 24 yuan/ton (-34), and in Jiangsu was - 34 yuan/ton (-34) [1] 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 26, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%) [1] 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 26, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.4 Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - The export profit was 1004 yuan/ton (-8). In October, 1200000 tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600000 tons, which improved the year - end export expectation [1][2] 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61% (+4.29%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 26, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.3639 million tons (-73300), and the port sample inventory was 100000 tons (+18000) [1]