Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Overall Market - Overseas, US employment data shows significant differentiation. The Fed's 12 - month rate - cut expectation is strengthened, and the focus is on November employment data and the Fed chair selection process. Domestically, the economic fundamentals cool marginally, but policy remains firm, and the market expects more policies. [2] - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate may continue to "oscillate and build a bottom, with a slowly declining central value". RMB's internal appreciation power is accumulating, but it's hard to have a unilateral rapid appreciation in the short - term. [4] Commodities - For precious metals, in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand will push up prices. Short - term, focus on the December Fed rate - cut expectation and 60 - day moving average. [12] - Copper prices are expected to be strong, with the futures price possibly breaking through 87,000. [13][14] - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina to run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy to oscillate at a high level. [15] - Zinc is expected to oscillate. [16] - Nickel and stainless steel markets are in a wait - and - see state. The downside space of nickel - stainless steel is larger. [17][18] - Tin is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, and it's recommended to enter the market on dips. [18] - Lithium carbonate may have a phased correction, and it's advisable to enter on dips after the correction. [20] - Industrial silicon will oscillate in the short - term and has long - term value for bottom - fishing. Polysilicon should pay attention to the position risk. [21][22] - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,100. [24] Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar may move between 2,900 - 3,200, and hot - rolled coils between 3,100 - 3,400. [25] - Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and it's advisable to short after the basis correction. [27] - Coking coal's 01 contract may be under pressure, while the 05 contract has long - term long - allocation potential. Coke's short - selling space is limited. [28][29] - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly. [29][30] Energy and Chemicals - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly. [33] - PX - PTA may correct, and it's advisable to go long after the correction. [33][34][35] - MEG - bottle chips can consider selling call options on rebounds. [38] - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level. [40] - PE is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a put - option strategy can be considered. [42] - Pure benzene and styrene are affected by export and maintenance news. Pay attention to actual transactions and maintenance plans. [43] - Fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur cracking is expected to rise. Consider widening the high - low sulfur spread. [44][45][46] - Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it's advisable to consider long - allocating BU2603. [48] - Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger. [50] - Soda ash is expected to be priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. [51] - Glass's 01 contract will follow the reality, and the 12 - month cold - repair expectation affects the far - month pricing. [53] - Caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals and high - level supply pressure. [54] - Logs' 01 contract is weak in reality, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds and 01 - 03 reverse spreads. [55][56] - Propylene's supply is generally loose, and the PP - PL spread is compressed. [58] Agricultural Products - For live pigs, the near - month contract still faces large pressure, and the impact of curing on prices needs attention. [59] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - Market Information: China promotes new business forms and AI application, urges a solution for Anshi Semiconductor, and Vanke discusses bond extension. US jobless claims fall, durable goods orders rise, and the Fed's Beige Book shows limited economic change. The UK announces a tax - increase plan, and there are developments in the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. [1] - Core Logic: Overseas, US employment data is differentiated, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation is strengthened. Domestically, economic fundamentals cool, but policy is firm. [2] - RMB Exchange Rate: The RMB strengthens against the USD. Policies are introduced to boost consumption, and the New Zealand central bank cuts rates. The RMB is expected to appreciate against the USD in the long - term but may slow down in the short - term. [3][4][5] - Treasury Bonds: Bond prices fall. Rumors of new public - fund fee regulations may cause selling pressure, but policies may hedge it. It's advisable to go long on dips. [5] - Container Shipping to Europe: Futures prices fall due to the Red Sea resumption expectation and weak spot prices. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. It's advisable to hold mid - term long positions and go long on dips. [5][6][7] Commodities Precious Metals - Market Review: Prices rise. The Fed's rate - cut expectation and delivery pressure affect prices. Platinum and palladium futures are listed. [9] - Rate - cut Expectation and Fund Holdings: The Fed's rate - cut probability is high. Gold ETF holdings increase, while silver, platinum, and palladium ETF holdings change differently. Inventories of gold and silver change. [10] - This Week's Focus: US Thanksgiving affects CME precious - metal trading hours. [11] - View: In the medium - to - long - term, prices will rise. Short - term, focus on the Fed's rate - cut expectation and technical indicators. [12] Copper - Market Review: Copper prices rise. The basis and the Shanghai - London ratio change. [13] - Industry Information: Warehouse receipts and inventories change, and the 2026 copper concentrate benchmark price may decline. US jobless claims data is released. [13][14] - View and Strategy: Spot trading has a price - pressing mentality, but futures have an upward expectation. It's advisable to pay attention to support and pressure levels and go long on dips for downstream enterprises. [14] Aluminum Industry Chain - Market Review: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices change. [14] - Core View: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina weakly, and cast aluminum alloy at a high level. [15] Zinc - Market Review: Zinc prices oscillate, and the night - session opens higher. [16] - Core Logic: The Fed's rate - cut expectation is high, and the dollar is weak. The smelting end has a strong demand for ore, and domestic inventories are decreasing while LME inventories are increasing. It's expected to oscillate. [16] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Review: Nickel and stainless steel prices rise. [17] - Industry Performance: Spot prices, premiums, and inventories are reported. [17] - Market Analysis: The market is in a wait - and - see state. Nickel - iron prices fall, and stainless steel has export benefits but weak demand. [18] Tin - Market Review: Tin prices oscillate, and the night - session price rises due to long - position funds. [18] - Core Logic: Supply is weaker than demand due to production resumption issues. It's recommended to enter on dips. [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: Futures prices rise, and trading volume and open interest increase. [19] - Industry Performance: Spot prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and downstream materials change. [19] - View: In December, the supply - demand pattern is strong. The price may correct at 100,000 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to go long on dips. [20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Review: Futures prices change, and trading volume and open interest change. [20] - Industry Performance: Spot prices of industrial silicon and photovoltaic products change. [21] - View: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks. [21][22] Lead - Market Review: Lead prices oscillate, and the night - session price is pressured. [22][23] - Core Logic: Supply is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to oscillate between 16,800 - 17,100. [24] Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market Review: Prices fall slightly. Iron ore affects the rise of finished - product prices. [25] - Core Logic: Steel supply and demand both increase, and inventories decline slowly. Iron ore prices oscillate. Finished - product prices are expected to oscillate within a range. [25] Iron Ore - Market Information: Prices are at a high - level oscillation. [24] - Information Arrangement: A consumption promotion plan is released, and electric - furnace steel mills' capacity utilization and scrap consumption change. [26] - View: Prices are strong in the short - term, affected by coking coal. It's advisable to short after the basis correction. [27] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Review: Coking coal prices are at the bottom and oscillate widely. [27] - Information Arrangement: A consumption promotion plan is released, and coking coal auction prices fall. [27][28] - Core Logic: Coking coal supply is marginally loose, and demand is weak. Coke has priced in multiple rounds of price cuts. It's advisable to go long on coking coal's 05 contract on dips and avoid short - selling coke blindly. [28][29] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Market Review: Prices fall. [29] - Core Logic: Steel mills' profitability declines, iron - water production decreases, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese face high - inventory and weak - demand issues. It's expected to oscillate weakly. [29][30] Energy and Chemicals LPG - Market Dynamics: Futures and spot prices change. [32] - Fundamentals: Supply and demand change slightly, and inventories increase. [32] - View: The RMB - denominated LPG is relatively strong, and the market may oscillate strongly. [33] PTA - PX - Fundamentals: PX supply is expected to be high, and PTA has many shutdowns. Polyester demand is expected to be high. PX benefits are good, and PTA processing fees are low. [33][34][35] - View: The PX - PTA market is affected by oil - blending speculation. It's advisable to go long on dips after the correction. [35] MEG - Bottle Chips - Inventory and Devices: Port inventory is stable, and some devices restart or shut down. [35][36] - Fundamentals: Supply decreases, and demand is expected to be high. Inventories may decline to a tight balance. [36][37] - View: Demand is stable, but supply - demand is in an oversupply pattern. It's advisable to sell call options on rebounds. [38] PP - Market Dynamics: Futures and spot prices fall. [38] - Fundamentals: Supply pressure eases due to device maintenance, and demand growth slows after the "Double 11" festival. Inventories decline. [39] - View: PP is expected to oscillate at a low level due to weak demand and cost support. [40] PE - Market Dynamics: Futures and spot prices fall. [41] - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is large, and demand weakens as the agricultural - film season ends. Inventories decline. [41][42] - View: PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern and is expected to oscillate at a low level. It's advisable to use a put - option strategy. [42] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Review: Futures prices rise. [42] - Inventory and View: Pure - benzene and styrene inventories change. The market is affected by export and maintenance news. [42][43] Fuel Oil - Market Review: Futures prices are reported. [43] - Industry Performance: Supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil change in November, and inventories change. [43][44][45] - Core Logic: High - sulfur fuel oil supply increases, and demand is mixed. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply may be affected by refinery issues, and demand is relatively stable. High - sulfur cracking is expected to fall, and low - sulfur cracking is expected to rise. [44][45][46] Asphalt - Market Review: Futures and spot prices change. [47] - Fundamentals: Supply decreases, demand increases slightly, and inventories decline. [47][48] - View: Asphalt is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it's advisable to consider long - allocating BU2603. [48] Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - Macro and Inventory Information: China conducts MLF operations, and US economic data is released. Rubber inventories change, and Thailand's floods affect production. [48][49] - Core View: Rubber supply tightens, and demand weakens. It's expected to oscillate widely, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger. [50] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda Ash: Inventory decreases, and it's expected to be priced by cost, with limited upward valuation elasticity. [50][51] - Glass: The 01 contract follows the reality, and the 12 - month cold - repair expectation affects the far - month pricing. [53] - Caustic Soda: Spot prices change locally, and supply - demand fundamentals are weak, with high - level supply pressure. [54] Logs - Market and Valuation: Futures prices change, and spot prices and inventory costs are reported. [54][55] - Core Contradiction: The 01 contract is weak in reality, and the 03 contract has a weak peak - season expectation. It's advisable to consider short - selling on rebounds and 01 - 03 reverse spreads. [55][56] Propylene - Market Dynamics: Futures prices fall, and the PP - PL spread compresses. [57] - Fundamentals: Supply decreases, and demand increases. Other downstream industries have low profit levels. [57][58] - View: Supply is generally loose, and the PP - PL spread is compressed. [58] Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: Futures prices rise, and spot prices change. The near - month contract still faces large pressure, and the impact of curing on prices needs attention. [59]
金融期货早评-20251127
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-11-27 05:36