Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, while the driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 284,007 lots and an open interest of 954,257 lots. The settlement prices were 13,635 yuan/ton for the January contract, 13,595 yuan/ton for the May contract, and 13,715 yuan/ton for the September contract. The ICE December contract settled at 62.77 cents, up 34 points; the March contract at 64.57 cents, up 34 points; and the May contract at 65.75 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 35,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 24, spinning mills in the Bortala region of northern Xinjiang purchased new machine - picked cotton of grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.8% impurity in Xinjiang warehouses. The basis transaction price for the 2601 contract was 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,600 - 14,750 yuan/ton, up 50 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 1.499 billion square meters of cotton products, a year - on - year increase of 4.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.68% [2] - As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress in the US was 71%, 5 percentage points behind the same period last year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average [2] - In August 2025, the US imported 9.789 billion square meters of textiles and clothing, a year - on - year increase of 0.74% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. The import value of textiles and clothing was $9.53 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 6.13% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.57% [2] - On November 24, both the trading volume and open interest of cotton yarn futures increased, and prices rose, while the spot market remained stable. Some spinning mills reported that recent downstream sales have slowed down, finished product inventories have increased slightly, and the off - season atmosphere in the market has intensified [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures have continuously risen to a weekly high, with the main 03 contract settling at 64.57 cents, up 0.53%. The driving force for Zhengzhou cotton futures prices has weakened. New cotton warehousing has reached its peak, and commercial inventories are in a seasonal growth cycle. Spinning mills' downstream orders remain dull, and the operating rate has not significantly declined. Overall, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintains a sideways trend [2] Trading Strategy - Close the long - call options on the 01 contract - Hold the call options with a strike price of 13,500 yuan/ton on the 05 contract [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示：棉花-20251127
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-11-27 06:02