集运日报：受悲观情绪影响，盘面持续大幅下行，建议观望为主，运价无明显波动-20251127

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Affected by pessimistic sentiment, the market continued to decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, and there was no obvious fluctuation in freight rates [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. Currently, the core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Pessimistic sentiment persists, spot freight rates are falling, the market has plunged, trading volume has increased, and the long - short game is fierce. The market is oscillating at a low level. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary by Related Content Freight Index Changes - On November 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 946.44 points, a decrease of 5.33% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) (European route) was 1639.37 points, an increase of 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 951.65 points, a decrease of 2.83% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, a decrease of 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 955.93 points, a decrease of 9.17% from the previous period [2] - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1393.56 points, a decrease of 57.82 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1122.79 points, an increase of 2.6% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1367 USD/TEU, a decrease of 3.53% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1432.96 points, an increase of 2.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, a decrease of 9.76% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 850.96 points, an increase of 0.6% from the previous period [2] PMI Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The initial value of the eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9, expected to be 45.1, and the previous value was 45; the initial value of the service PMI was 51.2, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 51.4; the initial value of the composite PMI was 49.7, expected to be 49.7, and the previous value was 49.6; the Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2 in the previous period and the predicted value was - 8.5 [2] - The initial value of the US October S&P Global service PMI was 55.2, expected to be 53.5, and the previous value was 54.2; the initial value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, expected to be 52; the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.8, expected to be 53.1, and the previous value was 53.9 [3] Contract Information - On November 26, the main contract 2602 closed at 1387.4, a decline of 7.62%, with a trading volume of 38,100 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 4222 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has retraced, and the far - month contracts are relatively strong. Risk - preferring investors are recommended to try to go long lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract. After the market plunges, do not recommend additional positions or holding losses. Set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Other Information - The Sino - US tariff issue is still resolved in the form of an extension in the short term. The logic of the freight rate trend still returns to the traditional seasonality and the issue of when the Red Sea will resume navigation. Currently, the spot price has decreased slightly [3] - On November 25, the Egyptian Intelligence Bureau chief and the Qatari Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister held talks in Cairo on the Gaza cease - fire issue and agreed to continue to strengthen cooperation and coordination with the US to ensure the maintenance of the Gaza cease - fire and implement the second phase of the cease - fire agreement [5] - The CEO of Maersk said that he was encouraged by the Gaza peace process, which would help establish freedom of navigation in the Mandeb Strait and restore normal trade routes [5]