图说金融：人民币升破7.08

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core View of the Report - Recently, the RMB has experienced a continuous appreciation trend, with the USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate breaking through the 7.08 and 7.07 levels, reaching a low near 7.06. There are three main reasons behind this: the weak Q3 employment data in the US and the deteriorating private - sector job growth in the latest ADP data have increased concerns about a non - linear rise in unemployment rates in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread, which promotes RMB appreciation; the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been continuously adjusted in a stronger direction, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high, and the positive signal from the China - US high - level call on November 24 has alleviated short - term concerns about tariff escalation; the good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have boosted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in seasonal corporate settlement demand at the end of the year may further consolidate the RMB's appreciation momentum [2] 3) Summary by Related Content - RMB Appreciation Trend: The USD/Offshore RMB exchange rate has broken through 7.08 and 7.07, reaching around 7.06 [2] - Reasons for RMB Appreciation: - US Economic Data and Fed Expectations: Weak US Q3 employment data and deteriorating ADP data on private - sector jobs have increased concerns about unemployment rate hikes in October and November, leading to a higher expectation of a December Fed rate cut, a decline in US Treasury yields, and a narrowing of the China - US interest rate spread [2] - Central Parity Rate and Diplomatic Signals: The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar has been adjusted strongly, reaching 7.0796 on November 26, a one - year high. The November 24 China - US high - level call sent positive signals, alleviating short - term tariff concerns [2] - Equity Market and Capital Flows: The good performance of the equity market and the continuous net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year have promoted RMB appreciation, and the expected increase in year - end corporate settlement demand may further strengthen the appreciation momentum [2]