HAIER BIOMEDICAL(SH:688139) Huachuang Securities·2025-11-27 07:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Haier Biomedical (688139) with a target price of 44 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue of 1.761 billion yuan, down 1.17% year-on-year, and a significant drop in net profit, down 35.83% to 198 million yuan [2][8]. - In Q3 2025, revenue showed a modest increase of 1.24% to 566 million yuan, while net profit decreased by 25.60% [2][8]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in Q3 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of 11.68% and a net profit growth of 71.34% compared to Q2 2025 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024A to 2027E, total revenue is projected to grow from 2.284 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.850 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.4% by 2027 [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to decline from 367 million yuan in 2024 to 259 million yuan in 2025, before recovering to 334 million yuan in 2027 [4][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to decrease from 1.15 yuan in 2024 to 0.82 yuan in 2025, with a gradual recovery to 1.05 yuan by 2027 [4][9]. Business Segment Analysis - New industries accounted for approximately 48% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant growth in the smart medication and blood technology sectors [8]. - The overseas business generated 634 million yuan in revenue, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.18%, driven by local operations in 18 countries [8]. - Domestic revenue decreased by 10.48% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed, with Q3 2025 showing stable performance [8]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The report estimates the company's net profit for 2025 to be 260 million yuan, with projections of 290 million yuan in 2026 and 330 million yuan in 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 40, 35, and 31 respectively [8][9]. - A discounted cash flow (DCF) model values the company at 141 billion yuan, supporting the target price of 44 yuan [8].