固定收益市场周观察：市场对明年一致预期或将提前反应

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market expectations for the bond market in Q1 2026 may be reflected in advance in Q4 2025. The end of 2025 may be a good time to build positions, while the bond market may not continue to adjust after the beginning of 2026 [6][9]. - There is limited trading opportunity in the bond market within the year. Products with overly long durations of trading varieties can appropriately shorten the duration, and coupon - bearing varieties such as credit bonds can be held continuously [6][12]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - Market expectations for the bond market in Q1 2026 may be reflected in advance in Q4 2025. End - of - year interest rates are difficult to decline, and the end of the year is a good time to build positions [6][9]. - From the perspective of past market expectations and institutional behavior, the current market expectation of rising interest rates in 2026 will be reflected in the end - of - year bond market. There is a possibility that inflation will rise slower than expected and the central bank will guide interest rates down in 2026. There is a limited reduction pressure in the bond market within the year [6][10][12]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Domestic PMI Release - China will release the manufacturing PMI for November, and the US will release data such as September PPI and September retail sales month - on - month rate. The ECB will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [14][15]. 2.2 Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds is expected to be 723.5 billion yuan, including 242 billion yuan of treasury bonds, 351.5 billion yuan of local bonds, and about 130 billion yuan of policy - bank bonds [15][16]. 3. Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook 3.1 Reverse Repurchase Net Injection - This week, the reverse repurchase injection continued to increase, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan and a net injection of 554 billion yuan. After considering the maturity of treasury deposits, the net injection of open - market operations was 434 billion yuan. The capital interest rate fluctuated and then declined, and the repurchase trading volume decreased [19][20]. 3.2 Differentiated Changes in Interest Rates of Various Tenors - Last week, the bond market was weakly volatile. The yields of 10 - year treasury bonds and CDB active bonds changed by 0.8bp and - 0.1bp respectively to 1.81% and 1.87%. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds changed by - 1bp, - 0.5bp, 0.9bp, - 0.8bp, and 0.3bp respectively [37][40]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, most operating rates declined, and the year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude - steel output in early November remained negative at - 11.7%. - On the demand side, the year - on - year decline in passenger - car wholesale and retail sales narrowed, and the year - on - year decline in commercial - housing transaction area slightly narrowed. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 4% and 2.6% respectively [47][48]. - In terms of prices, crude - oil, copper, aluminum, and coking - coal prices declined. The building - materials composite price index increased, while the cement and glass indices declined. The prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork decreased [48].