Zhongyuan Securities·2025-11-27 09:08Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the photovoltaic industry is entering a continuous capacity clearance cycle, driven by anti-involution policies and market dynamics, which will gradually improve the performance of existing photovoltaic companies [4][22][50] - The investment recommendation maintains a "stronger than market" rating, suggesting a focus on leading companies in niche sectors such as energy storage inverters, polysilicon materials, photovoltaic glass, and integrated component manufacturers [4][36][50] Group 1: 2025 Review and 2026 Outlook - In 2025, the photovoltaic sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with a total of 240.27 GW added, representing a year-on-year growth of 64.73% [4][36] - The report notes a bifurcation in stock performance, with the photovoltaic industry index yielding a return of 21.53% from January to November 2025, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which returned 13.18% [14][20] - The outlook for 2026 indicates a slowdown in new installations, with expectations of stable demand and a focus on improving the quality of the industry through capacity reduction and consolidation [4][36][50] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the energy storage inverter sector will benefit from a global upturn in energy storage demand, with significant growth expected in the market [4][36] - For polysilicon, the report highlights that anti-involution measures are likely to reverse the industry's challenges, recommending a focus on leading companies with performance elasticity [5][9] - The photovoltaic glass market is entering a phase of capacity optimization, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies that possess cost advantages [9][10] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the traditional markets in Europe and the U.S. are experiencing sluggish growth, while demand in Asia-Pacific and Africa remains robust, with imports of components continuing to grow rapidly [4][41][42] - The report outlines that the U.S. market is facing challenges due to the expiration of investment tax credits, which is expected to impact new installations negatively [45][46] - In contrast, the Middle East and Africa are emerging as hotspots for photovoltaic demand due to their energy transition needs and favorable market conditions [41][47]