Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-27 09:17Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The zinc market is expected to experience volatile adjustments, with attention focused on the range of 22,300 - 22,600 yuan/ton. The supply side shows that although zinc ore imports have increased and new production capacities are being released, domestic refined zinc production growth is limited due to factors such as reduced processing fees and lower sulfuric acid prices. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect is weak, with the real - estate sector dragging down, while the automotive and home - appliance sectors have some policy - supported highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the LME zinc inventory has increased, but the spot premium is high. Technically, the position has decreased, and both long and short positions are cautious, with attention on the MA60 support[3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,415 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price difference between the 01 - 02 contracts of Shanghai zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,055 US dollars/ton, up 55.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 189,741 lots, down 329 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 2,728 lots, down 1,037 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 100,347 tons, down 545 tons; the LME inventory is 49,925 tons, up 1,925 tons[3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,420 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 35 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 164.86 US dollars/ton, up 44.09 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 48,630 yuan/ton, up 30,030 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, unchanged[3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons[3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 161,900 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons[3]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units[3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 10.8%, down 0.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 10.95%, down 0.25 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.97%, down 0.06 percentage points[3]. Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts since the last report, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, and some people point out an increased risk of a slowdown in economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 216,000, the lowest in seven months, and the initial value of durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, in line with expectations, while the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%[3].