Zhongyuan Securities·2025-11-27 09:23Market Review - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector has outperformed the benchmark index since the beginning of 2025, with an absolute return of +24.66%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 10.47 percentage points [10][17][18] - The sector's index has increased by 18.4% over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.96 percentage points [14] Swine Breeding - The breeding capacity of sows is gradually declining, with a total of 39.9 million sows recorded by the end of October 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.04% [27][24] - The average price of live pigs in October 2025 was 11.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 11.46% and a year-on-year drop of 34.77% [29] - The swine breeding industry is currently facing losses, with theoretical profits for self-bred pigs averaging -209.67 yuan/head in October 2025, marking a significant decline from previous months [36][41] - The market share of the top eight listed pig companies has increased from 4.6% in 2017 to 21.2% by the third quarter of 2025, indicating a trend towards industry consolidation [37][41] Animal Health - The animal health market in China has shown steady growth, with sales increasing from 47.23 billion yuan in 2016 to 69.65 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.71% [45][46] - The introduction of new products and the expansion of demand are driving the growth of the animal health industry, particularly with the anticipated market expansion following the launch of African swine fever vaccines [51][52] - The market for companion animal health products is also growing, with the pet medical market expected to reach approximately 84 billion yuan in 2024, driven by increased spending on veterinary services [56] Seed Industry - The seed industry is experiencing a transformation due to new regulations and policies, with significant investment opportunities arising from the commercialization of biotechnology [4][19] - The market for genetically modified corn is projected to expand, with companies in the sector expected to benefit from increased industry concentration and profitability [18][19] Pet Food - China's pet food market is projected to continue growing, benefiting from demographic changes and rising living standards, with significant potential for domestic brands to capture market share [5][59] - The market for pet food exports is expected to maintain year-on-year growth in 2025, reflecting the increasing demand for high-quality pet products [5][59] - The pet food industry remains fragmented, with ongoing trends towards domestic substitution and increased online sales [5][59]