Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-27 09:22Report Summary Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Some domestic urea production decreased slightly due to partial device maintenance. Next week, 4 enterprises plan to stop production and 4 may resume, with production expected to fluctuate slightly considering short - term faults [3] - Northeast reserve demand procurement was concentrated recently, but the purchase volume may slow down after appropriate replenishment [3] - Compound fertilizer's start - up rate increased month - on - month, and enterprises are scheduling winter - storage fertilizer production. Short - term capacity utilization is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3] - With new export quotas, export demand is increasing. Due to reserve demand and downstream replenishment, urea enterprise inventory continued to decline, and short - term inventory is expected to continue to decrease slightly [3] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1690 in the short term [3] Directory Summaries 1. Futures Market - Zhengzhou urea's main contract closing price was 1668 yuan/ton, up 14; 1 - 5 spread was - 59 yuan/ton, up 5; main contract position was 230913 lots, up 1578; top 20 net position was - 27809, down 369; exchange warehouse receipts were 7181, down 209 [3] - The main contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton, down 24 [3] 2. Spot Market - Domestic spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were between 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, with some prices unchanged and some down 10 yuan/ton [3] - FOB Baltic was 362.5 dollars/ton, and FOB China main port was 400 dollars/ton, both unchanged [3] 3. Industry Situation - Port inventory was 100,000 tons, up 18,000 tons; enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons [3] - Urea enterprise start - up rate was 83.91%, down 0.17%; daily production was 202,900 tons, up 6,200 tons [3] - Urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; monthly production was 5.87127 million tons, up 132,600 tons [3] 4. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer start - up rate was 34.61%, up 4.29; melamine start - up rate was 62.2%, up 4.72 [3] - Compound fertilizer weekly profit was 30 yuan/ton, down 25; melamine's weekly profit from purchasing urea externally was 70 yuan/ton, down 63 [3] - Monthly compound fertilizer production was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; weekly melamine production was 32,000 tons, up 2,800 tons [3] 5. Industry News - As of November 26, enterprise inventory decreased by 73,300 tons week - on - week, a 5.10% decline [3] - As of November 27, port inventory was 100,000 tons, unchanged. With the end of legal inspections, port inventory may increase [3] - As of November 27, production was 1.417 million tons, down 0.34 million tons week - on - week; capacity utilization was 83.71%, down 0.20% [3] 6. Suggested Attention Attention should be paid to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and start - up rate on Thursday [3]