铁合金日报-20251127

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On November 27, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. For ferrosilicon, short - term fundamentals and cost are stable, and it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset. For silicomanganese, with stable supply - demand and cost support, it is also expected to oscillate at the bottom. The overall alloy valuation is not high, with cost support. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures - SF main contract closed at 5390, down 26 from the previous day and 56 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 317,259 (down 75,844 from the previous day) and an open interest of 229,279 (up 19,308 from the previous day) [2] - SM main contract closed at 5628, unchanged from the previous day and up 14 from the previous week, with a trading volume of 144,376 (up 20,465 from the previous day) and an open interest of 332,903 (down 37,054 from the previous day) [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Ferrosilicon: 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5200, unchanged from the previous day and down 80 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5200, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Qinghai, it was 5250, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5520, unchanged from the previous day and up 120 from the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5400, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week [2] - Silicomanganese: Silicomanganese 6517 in Inner Mongolia was priced at 5500, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 5480, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Guangxi, it was 5530, unchanged from the previous day and down 20 from the previous week; in Jiangsu, it was 5650, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week; in Tianjin, it was 5630, down 20 from the previous day and the previous week [2] 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Ferrosilicon: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 190, up 26 from the previous day and down 24 from the previous week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 190, up 26 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week; Qinghai - main contract basis was - 140, up 26 from the previous day and up 6 from the previous week; Jiangsu - Inner Mongolia spread was 320, unchanged from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; SF - SM spread was - 238, down 26 from the previous day and down 70 from the previous week [2] - Silicomanganese: Inner Mongolia - main contract basis was - 128, unchanged from the previous day and down 34 from the previous week; Ningxia - main contract basis was - 148, unchanged from the previous day and down 14 from the previous week; Guangxi - main contract basis was - 98, unchanged from the previous day and down 34 from the previous week; Guangxi - Inner Mongolia spread was 30, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [2] 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): Australian lump was priced at 39.8, unchanged from the previous day and up 0.1 from the previous week; South African semi - carbonate was 34.2, down 0.1 from the previous day and the previous week; Gabon lump was 41.5, unchanged from the previous day and up 1 from the previous week [2][3][4] - Lanthanum semi - coke small materials: In Shaanxi, it was 820, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Inner Mongolia, it was 810, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; in Ningxia, it was 920, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [2][3][4] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Ferrosilicon - On November 27, the spot price was stable overall. The supply is in a downward trend as alloy plants enter the maintenance phase. The demand may see a short - term rebound in steel production due to improved steel profits, but the recent weakening of steel apparent demand makes the resumption of production unsustainable. The cost of ferroalloy electricity prices in each region is generally stable. Overall, short - term fundamentals and cost are stable, and with a low self - valuation level, it should be operated with a bottom - oscillation mindset [6] 3.2.2 Silicomanganese - On November 27, manganese ore spot was slightly weak, with Tianjin Port semi - carbonate down 0.1 yuan/ton degree, and silicomanganese spot also slightly weak, with some regional spots down 20 yuan/ton. The supply is in a downward trend. The demand may see a short - term rebound in steel production due to improved steel profits, but the weakening of steel apparent demand makes the resumption of production unsustainable. The manganese ore port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the spot price is firm, leading to an increase in the cost. Under stable supply - demand and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The overall alloy valuation is not high, and the cost is supported, so it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [7] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the basis of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the spot price of silicomanganese, ferroalloy electricity prices, the cost and profit of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, etc [9][11][13][15][18][24]